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FXHW40 KWBC 251230
PMDHCO
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
830AM EDT THU SEP 18 2008
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FOR OCTOBER 2008
SST ANOMALIES NEAR HAWAII NOW AROUND ZERO DEGREE C.
FOR JANUARY 2008 THROUGH THE END OF AUGUST - RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS WERE:
- LIHUE AIRPORT 9.56 INCHES (41 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 3.17 INCHES (31 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 3.51 INCHES (29 PERCENT OF NORMAL)
- HILO AIRPORT 80.59 INCHES (99 PERCENT OF NORMAL).
NCEP MODELS PREDICT BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR
HAWAII FOR OCTOBER 2008.
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
HILO B40 75.8 0.5 B40 8.1 9.6 10.5
KAHULUI B40 78.3 0.5 B40 0.4 0.6 1.0
HONOLULU B40 80.0 0.5 B40 0.3 1.4 1.9
LIHUE B40 78.1 0.4 B40 2.0 3.2 4.3
SEASONAL OUTLOOK DISCUSSION VALID FOR OND 2008 TO OND 2009
REFER TO THE 90 DAY DISCUSSION FOR FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SST AND
DETAILS OF THE GENERAL BACKGROUND TO THE FORECAST. ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE
STILL IN THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. ABOVE-AVERAGE SSTS IN THE EAST-CENTRAL
AND EASTERN PACIFIC DIMINISHED - WHILE BELOW-AVERAGE SSTS IN THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC STRENGTHENED SLIGHTLY. THE SUBSURFACE OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ALSO
DECREASED IN RESPONSE TO THE EMERGENCE OF NEGATIVE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES AT
THERMOCLINE DEPTH IN THE EAST-CENTRAL PACIFIC. HOWEVER ASPECTS OF THE
ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION AND PATTERN OF TROPICAL CONVECTION REFLECT A LINGERING
LA NIA SIGNAL - PARTICULARLY OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PACIFIC. ENHANCED
LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY WINDS AND UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY WINDS PERSIST IN THIS REGION
- WHILE CONVECTION REMAINS GENERALLY SUPPRESSED OVER THE CENTRAL PACIFIC.
BASED ON RECENT SST TRENDS AND MODEL FORECASTS - ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF 2008.
NCEP MODELS PREDICT A TENDENCY FOR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURE FOR HILO - KAHULUI
-HONOLULU FROM OND TO NDJ 2008. A TENDENCY FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE IS
EXPEXTED FOR HILO FROM FMA TO MAM 2009 - KAHULUI AND HONOLULU FROM JFM TO MAM
2009 -HILO FROM DJF TO MAM 2009. MODELS ALSO PREDICT BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION
FOR HILO - KAHULUI - HONOLULU FROM OND TO NDJ 2008 - FOR LIHUE FOR OND 2008.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATIONS ARE FORECAST FOR HAWAII FROM JFM TO MAM 2009.
HILO
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
OND 2008 B40 74.2 0.4 B45 26.1 33.1 41.3
NDJ 2008 B40 72.8 0.4 B40 25.5 32.9 41.7
DJF 2008 EC 72.0 0.4 EC 20.1 27.2 35.9
JFM 2009 EC 71.8 0.4 A40 23.9 30.9 39.4
FMA 2009 A40 72.1 0.4 A40 29.5 35.9 43.1
MAM 2009 A40 72.8 0.5 A40 28.3 34.9 42.6
AMJ 2009 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 22.0 26.8 32.2
MJJ 2009 EC 75.0 0.4 EC 19.1 23.1 27.8
JJA 2009 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 19.5 24.2 29.6
JAS 2009 EC 76.3 0.4 EC 22.2 27.1 32.7
ASO 2009 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 23.4 27.0 31.0
SON 2009 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 25.8 31.7 38.4
OND 2009 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.1 33.1 41.3
KAHULUI
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
OND 2008 B40 75.9 0.5 B45 4.2 5.7 7.6
NDJ 2008 B40 73.8 0.5 B40 5.7 7.8 10.4
DJF 2008 EC 72.5 0.5 EC 6.8 9.0 11.7
JFM 2009 A40 72.4 0.5 A40 6.0 8.1 10.6
FMA 2009 A40 73.2 0.5 A40 4.3 6.0 8.1
MAM 2009 A40 74.4 0.6 A40 2.9 4.2 5.8
AMJ 2009 EC 75.8 0.6 EC 1.0 1.8 3.1
MJJ 2009 EC 77.3 0.6 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5
JJA 2009 EC 78.6 0.5 EC 0.8 1.1 1.3
JAS 2009 EC 79.1 0.5 EC 0.9 1.2 1.5
ASO 2009 EC 78.9 0.5 EC 1.3 1.8 2.5
SON 2009 EC 77.8 0.5 EC 2.2 3.1 4.3
OND 2009 EC 75.9 0.5 EC 4.2 5.7 7.6
HONOLULU
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
OND 2008 B40 77.3 0.5 B45 4.5 6.2 8.4
NDJ 2008 EC 73.8 0.5 B40 5.7 7.8 10.4
DJF 2008 EC 73.5 0.4 EC 5.0 6.9 9.1
JFM 2009 A40 73.5 0.4 A40 4.1 5.8 8.0
FMA 2009 A40 74.5 0.4 A40 3.4 4.6 6.1
MAM 2009 A40 76.0 0.4 A40 2.4 3.2 4.3
AMJ 2009 EC 77.7 0.4 EC 1.2 1.8 2.6
MJJ 2009 EC 79.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 2.0
JJA 2009 EC 80.7 0.4 EC 0.8 1.2 1.6
JAS 2009 EC 81.2 0.4 EC 1.1 1.5 2.0
ASO 2009 EC 81.0 0.5 EC 1.7 2.6 3.8
SON 2009 EC 79.6 0.5 EC 2.7 4.0 5.9
OND 2009 EC 77.3 0.5 EC 4.5 6.2 8.4
LIHUE
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV
OND 2008 EC 75.6 0.3 B45 10.7 13.3 16.2
NDJ 2008 EC 73.6 0.3 EC 9.8 12.5 15.8
DJF 2008 A40 72.4 0.4 EC 8.6 11.4 14.7
JFM 2009 A40 72.4 0.4 A40 8.0 10.8 14.1
FMA 2009 A40 73.1 0.4 A40 7.5 9.6 12.0
MAM 2009 A40 74.4 0.4 A40 7.3 9.2 11.4
AMJ 2009 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.3 7.0 9.0
MJJ 2009 EC 77.5 0.4 EC 4.6 6.2 8.0
JJA 2009 EC 78.8 0.3 EC 4.6 5.6 6.6
JAS 2009 EC 79.3 0.3 EC 5.1 6.2 7.4
ASO 2009 EC 79.0 0.3 EC 6.3 8.0 10.0
SON 2009 EC 77.7 0.3 EC 9.1 10.9 12.9
OND 2009 EC 75.6 0.3 EC 10.7 13.3 16.2
FORECASTER: LUKE HE
NOTE - ON SEPTEMBER 18 2003...THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) MADE A CHANGE
TO PROBABILITIES EXPRESSED FOR THE ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR NORMAL...AND BELOW
NORMAL CATEGORIES IN ONE-MONTH AND THREE-MONTH OUTLOOKS. CPC WILL NO LONGER
EXPRESS PROBABILITIES AS ANOMALIES FROM 33 PERCENT. INSTEAD WE USE THE ACTUAL
PROBABILITES FOR THE CATEGORIES. PLEASE SEE THE FOLLOWING LINK FOR MORE DETAILS:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/SERVICE_CHANGE_LL.HTML
NOTE - EC (EQUAL CHANCES) HAS REPLACED CL (CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES) AT
THOSE LOCATIONS WHERE THE FORECAST IS UNCERTAIN.
CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY
ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE
TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT
OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE - NORMAL - OR BELOW NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK.
FOR EXAMPLE -A37 MEANS A 37% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
IN THE ABOVE CLASS - B36 MEANS A 36% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE BELOW CLASS - AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT
TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS
SPECIFIED THE PROBABILITY OF THE MOST LIKELY CATEGORY CANNOT BE PREDICTED.
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID
PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS
SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE
ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU OCT 16, 2008
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