647
FXUS01 KWBC 270848
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
448 AM EDT SAT SEP 27 2008
VALID 12Z SAT SEP 27 2008 - 00Z MON SEP 29 2008
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A NUMBER OF DISTURBANCES WILL FRACTURE AND
STREAM NORTHWARD OFF A CUT-OFF LOW SITTING OVER THE CAROLINAS. IN
ADDITION...A PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OFF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC WILL PROVIDE AMPLE MOISTURE TO SUSTAIN WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. FARTHER TO THE SOUTH...THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE AS MUCH OF THE
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL IN RESPONSE TO THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW.
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE MUCH WEAKER ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AS THE PRIMARY WIND DIRECTION WILL BE OFF THE
DRIER LAND. CONSEQUENTLY...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE MUCH LOWER
FROM WESTERN NEW YORK SOUTHWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.
UNDERNEATH THE EXPANSIVE CLOUD SHIELD OVER THE
NORTHEAST...TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF
THE 60S.
STAYING OUT ON THE EAST COAST...THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WILL HAVE
TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE TROPICS AS TROPICAL STORM KYLE HAS
BEGUN TO MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM PUERTO RICO. THE CURRENT
FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE TROPICAL SYSTEM FAIRLY CLOSE TO CAPE
COD...WHILE STILL REMAINING OFFSHORE. DEPENDING ON THE PROXIMITY
OF KYLE TO THE COAST...RAIN AND WIND MAY IMPACT THE COASTLINE. ONE
ASPECT OF THE FORECAST WHICH IS CERTAIN ARE THE ROUGH SEAS
EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. TO OBTAIN THE MOST
UP TO DATE INFORMATION ON THE FORECAST TRACK OF TROPICAL STORM
KYLE...PLEASE THE VISIT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WEBSITE AT
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV.
A RAPIDLY PROGRESSING UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY MOVING INTO WESTERN
CANADA WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL HELP BREAK DOWN A WEAK AREA OF RIDGING
OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AS IT DIVES TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL BE
FAIRLY DRY ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AS THE PRIMARY ENERGY SOURCE
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER. ONCE THIS SYSTEM
STARTS TO TAKE A MORE SOUTHWARD TRAJECTORY BY SUNDAY EVENING
ACROSS THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...A WEAK SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
DRAW GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALLOWING SCATTERED PRECIPITATION TO
SPAWN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE PRIMARY EFFECT OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL BE THE COOLER TEMPERATURES FILLING IN AS THE COOL DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER SOUTHERN CANADA. BY MONDAY...HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL BE WIDESPREAD STRETCHING FROM THE
NORTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT LAKES.
RUBIN-OSTER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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