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FXUS01 KWBC 280755
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
354 AM EDT SUN SEP 28 2008
VALID 12Z SUN SEP 28 2008 - 00Z TUE SEP 30 2008
THE PRIMARY WEATHER STORY OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS WILL BE THE HEAVY RAINS THAT WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEW
ENGLAND STATES. MUCH OF THIS PRECIPITATION STARTED BACK ON
THURSDAY AS AN EARLY FALL COASTAL STORM MOVED ONSHORE. WHILE THE
UPPER-LEVEL REFLECTION OF THIS SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY
WEAKENED...THE SURFACE FLOW HAS REMAINED FROM THE SOUTHEAST
DRAWING AN ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
CONSEQUENTLY...A BAND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL HAS BEEN
MOVING NORTHWARD FROM EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS NORTHWARD INTO COASTAL
MAINE. AS HURRICANE KYLE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHEAST...THE
PERSISTENT WIND DIRECTION WILL QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST IN
RESPONSE TO THE DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OF KYLE. AS KYLE CLOSES IN
ON MAINE AND NOVA SCOTIA BY SUNDAY EVENING...WINDS WILL PICK UP IN
SPEED...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COASTLINE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED AS KYLE WILL MAKE LANDFALL AS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM
OR A WEAK CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE. HOWEVER...THE WORST OF THE STORM
SHOULD BE ACROSS NOVA SCOTIA WHERE THE STRONGEST STORM SURGE AND
HIGHEST WIND GUSTS WILL RESIDE. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF HIGH
WINDS...RAIN BANDS FROM KYLE WILL COMPOUND THE EFFECTS OF THE
PREVIOUS RAINS OVER THE PAST 48 HOURS. AS WITH ANY TROPICAL
SYSTEM...THE THREAT FOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY AFTER
SOME LOCATIONS HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH THE
PREVIOUS SYSTEM. FOR THE MOST UP TO DATE FORECAST TRACK ON
KYLE...PLEASE VISIT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER WEBSITE AT
WWW.NHC.NOAA.GOV.
A SYNOPTIC PATTERN CHANGE IS CURRENTLY UNDERWAY AS A UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL DIVE SOUTHWARD
INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST OVERNIGHT SUNDAY. IN THE WAKE OF IT...A
LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE U.S.
AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...IT WILL
SLOW IN FORWARD PROGRESS AND BRING MUCH COOLER AIR INTO THE
NORTHERN TIER. THIS WILL PROVIDE THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SHOT OF
COOL AIR TO THE UNITED STATES WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST NOT MAKING IT OUT OF THE 50S EARLY NEXT WEEK.
OVERNIGHT LOWS MONDAY NIGHT WILL EVEN START TO APPROACH THE LOW TO
MID 30S ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA. BESIDES THE FALLING
TEMPERATURES...THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
CENTER OF THE NATION WILL ALSO PROVIDE A THREAT FOR RAINFALL. THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL INITIALLY BE DRY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH
THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...BY SUNDAY EVENING...A WEAK
SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DRAW GULF MOISTURE NORTHWARD ALLOWING
PRECIPITATION TO COMMENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY. WHILE MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL STATES CAN EXPECT SMALLER RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS...SOME
HEAVIER AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR ACROSS AREAS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.
RUBIN-OSTER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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