646
FXUS01 KWBC 290826
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
426 AM EDT MON SEP 29 2008
VALID 12Z MON SEP 29 2008 - 00Z WED OCT 01 2008
AS THE REMAINS OF TROPICAL STORM KYLE DEPARTS INTO NOVA
SCOTIA...CONDITIONS SHOULD QUICKLY BEGIN TO CLEAR ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN U.S. SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY
STILL LINGER ACROSS THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES
AS A SEPARATE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SLOWLY MOVES OFFSHORE. OVER THE
COURSE OF THE NEXT 24 HOURS...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE EAST IN ADVANCE OF A STRENGTHENING TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE
CENTER OF THE NATION. THIS WILL PROMOTE CLEARING CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH TEMPERATURES APPROACHING THE 80 DEGREE MARK ACROSS THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES BOTH MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER...THESE
TRANQUIL CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS THE FIRST SHOT OF
COOLER AIR OF THE YEAR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE EASTERN THIRD
OF THE COUNTRY BY MID-WEEK. IN ADDITION...THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FIRING ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE ON TUESDAY ACROSS
AREAS ALONG THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THE PRIMARY
THREATS WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
WEATHER...PLEASE VISIT THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER WEBSITE AT
WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV.
THE FIRST SHOT OF COOL AIR IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING TROUGH OVER
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES IS ALREADY BEGINNING TO MOVE
INTO THE NORTHERN TIER. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY WILL STRUGGLE
TO MOVE OUT OF THE 50S ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS REACHING THE UPPER 30S. THIS CHILLY LATE SEPTEMBER AIR MASS
WILL DRIVE TOWARD THE SOUTH AND EAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE UPPER-LEVEL DISTURBANCE DRIVING THE WEATHER SYSTEM WILL
BE STRONG ENOUGH TO BRING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY DOWN TOWARD THE
GULF COAST BY TUESDAY EVENING. NOTICEABLY DRIER AIR WILL REACH THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY MID-WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING
BACK DOWN INTO THE UPPER 70S. HOWEVER...THE FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
EXPECTED TO BE DRY AS THE STRONGEST UPPER-LEVEL FORCING WILL
REMAIN WELL TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES.
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF FLORIDA WILL REMAIN SOGGY THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK AS A PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE SUNSHINE STATE. CONSEQUENTLY...CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY HUMID
WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S. THIS WILL BRING HEAT
INDICES UP INTO THE MID 90S ACROSS ISOLATED PORTIONS OF SOUTH
FLORIDA.
ELSEWHERE...A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE U.S. WHICH WILL KEEP THE WEATHER QUIET TO BEGIN THE
WORK WEEK. THIS WILL HELP PROMOTE MILD TEMPERATURES WHICH WILL
RESIDE 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY. THIS UNUSUALLY WARM AIR
MASS WILL BRING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TO
LEVELS AS WARM AS MANY AREAS THE GULF COAST WILL BE BY MID-WEEK.
RUBIN-OSTER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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