019
FXUS01 KWBC 070836
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
435 AM EDT TUE OCT 07 2008
VALID 12Z TUE OCT 07 2008 - 00Z THU OCT 09 2008
THERE WILL BE TWO MAIN AREAS OF ACTIVE WEATHER DURING THE SHORT
RANGE PERIOD. THE FIRST IS CURRENTLY MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
CENTER OF THE COUNTRY... MATERIALIZING IN THE FORM OF RAIN FROM
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS TWO UPPER
LEVEL TROUGHS MOVE EAST.
THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE SOUTHERN TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST AS A
WEAK OCCLUDED FRONT... WORKING WITH PLENTY OF GULF MOISTURE TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY. THE
HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR FROM TENNESSEE AND
MISSISSIPPI... EASTWARD ALONG THE GULF COAST STATES AS UPPER JET
DYNAMICS COMBINE WITH THE GREATEST AVAILABLE MOISTURE. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD STAY BELOW SEVERE LIMITS FOR THE MOST PART...
HOWEVER AN ISOLATED THREAT OF LARGE HAIL OR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS EXISTS.
THE OTHER UPPER TROUGH... CURRENTLY OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA... WILL
WEAKEN AS IT LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE... THE
ASSOCIATED WEAK SURFACE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TODAY... AND SLOWLY DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY...
HOWEVER... PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND REGIONS OF STEADY RAIN WILL FOLLOW
THE SYSTEM EAST FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL U.S. INTO PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY MORNING.
THE SECOND MAJOR AREA OF ACTIVE WEATHER WILL IMPACT THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY AND WEDNESDAY... AS A
STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT MAKES LANDFALL THIS MORNING. HEAVY
PRECIPITATION WILL FALL ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST... FROM
BRITISH COLUMBIA
DOWN INTO WASHINGTON. IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO SNOW IN THE
NORTHERN CASCADES... HOWEVER THIS WILL NOT BE A MAJOR SNOW
PRODUCER FOR THIS REGION COMPARED TO WHAT THE AREA USUALLY SEES
DURING THE WINTER MONTHS. HEAVIER SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE LIKELY TODAY
INTO THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND ALBERTA AS THE
REGION WILL HAVE MORE AVAILABLE COLD AIR. THE REST OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL SEE RAIN WITH THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS
RECEIVING THE GREATEST PRECIPITATION TOTALS. AS THE COLD FRONT
QUICKLY MOVES EAST... WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE WEST... WITH
RATHER STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE JUST AFTER THE FRONT PASSES FROM
WASHINGTON INTO MONTANA. LIGHTER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL IMPACT
THOSE EAST OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...
AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO LINGER FOR COASTAL
BRITISH COLUMBIA AND WASHINGTON THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
OTTO
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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