173
FXUS01 KWBC 140732
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
331 AM EDT MON SEP 14 2009
VALID 12Z MON SEP 14 2009 - 00Z WED SEP 16 2009
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE LOWER 48 STATES WILL REMAIN QUITE
BLOCKY WITH A SLOWLY WEAKENING UPPER LOW EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY
LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY..WHILE AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACRS SOUTHERN CANADA AND THE NORTHERN U.S. SLOWS
THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF WEAK PACIFIC SYSTEMS MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN STATES.
ACROSS THE SOUTH...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNSETTLED
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND
THE BROAD CYCLONIC UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION PARKED ACRS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY..AS DEEP MOISTURE IS DRAWN NORTHWARD FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. FURTHER TO THE EAST...A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
EXTENDING ALONG THE GULF COAST THROUGH NORTHERN FLORIDA ALONG WITH
A SOUTHWESTERLY PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE WILL HELP TO TRIGGER AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
SOUTHEAST STATES.
TO THE NORTH...A SHARPENING UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL HELP DRIVE A
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE GT LAKES..OHIO VALLEY AND
NORTHEAST WITH A COOL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BUILD JUST
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY WED MORNING. A FEW WEAK
SHOWERS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ON MONDAY..BUT OTHERWISE WILL SLIP THROUGH THE REGION RATHER DRY.
IN THE WEST..CLOSED LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS MT EARLY MONDAY
WILL TAKE ALL SHOWER ACTIVITY WITH IT INTO CANADA. BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...AN UPPER LEVEL TROF PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC
COAST REGION WILL SLOW AS IT HEADS EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL GREAT
BASIN MON INTO TUES. ASSOCIATED COLD POOL ALOFT AND RESIDUAL
MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN EASTWARD INTO PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH TUES NIGHT.
SULLIVAN
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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