568
FXUS01 KWBC 010829
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
429 AM EDT THU OCT 01 2009
VALID 12Z THU OCT 01 2009 - 00Z SAT OCT 03 2009
UPPER-LEVEL CLOSED LOW CENTERS WILL BE PLENTIFUL TO CONCLUDE THE
WORK WEEK AS A TRIO OF LOWS WILL BE FEATURED ACROSS THE NATION.
THE PRIMARY LOW PRESSURE AREA IS THE MOST DYNAMIC OF THE THREE AS
IT MARCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. AND INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING. A POTENT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHING
EASTWARD WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE WEATHER AS A COOLER
AND DRIER AIR MASS SETTLES IN. CURRENT SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 60S ACROSS THE WARM
SECTOR WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S ACCOMPANIED BY LOWER HUMIDITY
BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS HIGHLY DYNAMIC FRONT WILL ALSO
BE A POTENT PRODUCER OF PRECIPITATION AS IT BISECTS A LARGE PLUME
OF GULF MOISTURE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BREAK
OUT AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SOME STORMS BECOMING SEVERE. THE
FLOODING THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE MINIMAL AS THE SWATH OF RAINFALL
WILL BE FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE. BY FRIDAY EVENING...THE PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BECOME LESS CONCENTRATED AND WEAKER IN INTENSITY ONCE IT
CROSSES THE APPALACHIANS AND TOWARD THE EASTERN SEABOARD.
A QUASI-STATIONARY UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. WILL
FINALLY MOVE NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NOVA SCOTIA BY FRIDAY WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS TO MUCH OF THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES. HOWEVER...BEFORE THIS HAPPENS...ANOTHER COOL AND DREARY
DAY WILL BE IN STORE FOR THURSDAY WITH WIDESPREAD HIGHS IN THE 40S
ACCOMPANIED BY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE INTERIOR
NORTHEASTERN U.S.
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S...A LARGE SURFACE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN HAS RESULTED IN NUMEROUS ISSUANCES OF
RED FLAG WARNINGS ACROSS THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA. THESE DRY AND
WINDY CONDITIONS IS FORECAST TO ENHANCE THE DANGER FOR WILDFIRES
AS INDICATED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK.
FARTHER TO THE NORTH...ANOTHER IN A SERIES UPPER LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY FRIDAY EVENING. PRECIPITATION WILL
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE OVER THE REGION WITH MUCH OF THE FOCUS ALONG
THE FAVORED TERRAIN. THIS WILL MOSTLY CONSIST OF PRECIPITATION IN
THE FORM OF RAIN AS THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT RESIDES TO THE NORTH.
RUBIN-OSTER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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