178
FXUS01 KWBC 012011
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
410 PM EDT THU OCT 01 2009
VALID 00Z FRI OCT 02 2009 - 12Z SAT OCT 03 2009
A ROBUST AND DYNAMIC STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING OUT OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NEXT
TWO DAYS. FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL AIDE IN ITS
STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT AS ITS LARGE PRECIPITATION SHIELD SPREADS
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. TO THE SOUTH... SEVERE WEATHER IS
POSSIBLE IN SOME AREAS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE
WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THE TAIL
END OF THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ALONG THE GULF COAST ON
FRIDAY WHICH MAY ENHANCE THE PRECIPITATION FROM TEXAS TO
LOUISIANA. THE NORTHEAST WILL NOT HAVE MUCH OF A BREAK IN THE WET
WEATHER AFTER THE UPPER LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY KEEPING THE AREA
COOL AND OCCASIONALLY DAMP FIZZLES OUT AND MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST
JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT FROM THE MIDWEST. MORE
WIDESPREAD RAIN IS LIKELY FROM PENNSYLVANIA NORTHWARD FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY. THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS SHOULD LARGELY ESCAPE THE BULK OF THE RAIN AS THE
MAIN AREA OF PRECIPITATION HEADS TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHERN
CANADA.
IN THE WEST... AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL SLIDE DOWN THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA AND HELP PUSH A RELATIVELY WEAK COLD
FRONT INTO THE GREAT BASIN BY SATURDAY. AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS
RATHER LIMITED SO MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL OVER
FAVORED AND ELEVATED AREAS. TEMPERATURES LOOK JUST A BIT TOO WARM
FOR SNOW UNTIL AFTER THE FRONT PASSES THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
WASHINGTON/IDAHO/WESTERN MONTANA. IN THE SOUTHWEST... THE WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS TODAY CAUSED BY HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WILL EASE AS THE OFFSHORE FLOW RELAXES ON FRIDAY. FARTHER SOUTH...
TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW INTO MEXICO AHEAD OF NEWLY
DEVELOPED TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18. ANY ASSOCIATED RAINFALL SHOULD
STAY JUST SOUTH OF THE AZ BORDER THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
PLEASE CONSULT THE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM.
FRACASSO
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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