841
FXUS01 KWBC 020848
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
448 AM EDT FRI OCT 02 2009
VALID 12Z FRI OCT 02 2009 - 00Z SUN OCT 04 2009
THERE ARE TWO MAJOR WEATHER SYSTEMS THAT WILL AFFECT THE LOWER 48
DURING THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD. THE FIRST IS CURRENTLY LOCATED
ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS A STRONG OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT. A
LARGE SWATH OF STEADY RAIN JUST NORTH OF THE OCCLUDED AND WARM
FRONTS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO WRAP UP. A CONTINUOUS LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT ARE BEING DRIVEN BY LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT AND ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN LATER
THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY AS INSTABILITY
WANES. STRONGER STORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE HOWEVER... ALONG THE
GULF COAST AS SUFFICIENT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE. AS
THIS SYSTEM IS BEING DRIVEN BY A ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL
LOW... BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
ACROSS THE CENTER OF THE COUNTRY THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
WELL BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED OUT WEST AS
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW STRENGTHENS AND SINKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SINK SOUTH INTO CALIFORNIA
AND NEVADA BY LATE SATURDAY BRINGING COLD TEMPERATURES AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW TO A GOOD PORTION OF THE NORTHWEST. ACCUMULATING
SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH... THOUGH AT LEAST A
RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE DOWN TO ELEVATIONS OF 4000 FT FOR
WASHINGTON AND OREGON.
THE TAIL END OF THE COLD FRONT FROM THE EAST WILL SETTLE ACROSS
NORTHERN MEXICO INTO TEXAS AND REMAIN SITUATED IN ROUGHLY THE SAME
PLACE INTO THE WEEKEND. SOME MOISTURE FROM TROPICAL STORM OLAF IN
THE EASTERN PACIFIC IS FORECAST TO TRANSPORT EASTWARD AND COMBINE
WITH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW IN THE GULF OF MEXICO WHICH WILL
OVERRUN THE FRONT LEADING TO WIDESPREAD RAIN FOR MUCH OF TEXAS
BEGINNING DURING THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
OTTO
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