688
FXUS01 KWBC 030833
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
432 AM EDT SAT OCT 03 2009
VALID 12Z SAT OCT 03 2009 - 00Z MON OCT 05 2009
A LARGE AND DEEP CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES THIS MORNING WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO CANADA WHILE WEAKENING
THIS WEEKEND... ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND SOME OVER THE
GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY... ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY. SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION HOWEVER...
AS COLD AIR ALOFT PROMOTES INSTABILITY ALONG WITH PIECES OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO REVOLVE AROUND THE UPPER LOW
CENTER. FARTHER EAST... THE PRIMARY DIFFERENCE WITH THIS FRONTAL
PASSAGE WILL BE A DRIER AIRMASS WITH MAX TEMPERATURES ACTUALLY
EXPECTED TO BE AT OR ABOVE AVERAGE. STEADY RAIN MOVING INTO THE
NORTHEAST THIS MORNING SHOULD THE REGION EARLY TONIGHT.
THE WESTERN END OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY LIFT NORTH ACROSS
THE DEEP SOUTH ALLOWING A DEEP LAYER OF MOISTURE TO MOVE NORTH
WITH IT. MODERATE LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE FRONT WILL OVERRUN
ATOP THE COLDER AIR BEHIND THE SURFACE BOUNDARY ALLOWING FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN TO DEVELOP IN TEXAS LATER TODAY. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES TRAVELING IN A SOLID BELT OF WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT
WILL ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION. THE
AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LEFT TO THE EAST NORTHEAST FOR
SUNDAY IN WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
ACROSS THE WEST... THE BEGINNINGS OF WHAT WILL BECOME A DEEP
CLOSED LOW ALOFT IS ALREADY VISIBLE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. TWENTY
TO THIRTY DEGREE DEPARTURES OF MAX TEMPERATURES FROM AVERAGE ARE
EXPECTED BY THE END OF WEEKEND ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WEST.
IN ADDITION... THE FIRST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON IS
EXPECTED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN OREGON INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WHERE WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE BEEN POSTED IN ANTICIPATION OF A
VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM. MORE INFORMATION ON EXPECTED SNOWFALL CAN BE
FOUND IN THE HPC HEAVY SNOW DISCUSSION.
OTTO
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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