734
FXUS01 KWBC 040846
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
446 AM EDT SUN OCT 04 2009
VALID 12Z SUN OCT 04 2009 - 00Z TUE OCT 06 2009
THREE MAIN AREAS OF INTEREST ARE WORTH NOTING DURING THE SHORT
RANGE PERIOD. THE FIRST IS ACROSS THE WEST AS A LARGE UPPER
CYCLONE CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST...
FOLLOWED BY AN EASTWARD TURN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY.
THE COLD AIR IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHWEST YESTERDAY WILL MAKE IT
INTO MUCH OF CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT BASIN TODAY... WITH BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXTENDING WELL EAST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND GREAT PLAINS. IN ADDITION TO THE COLD WEATHER... SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA... ESPECIALLY OVER 7000 FT IN
ELEVATION. AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE MAKES ITS WAY INTO THE PLAINS
LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING... STEADY RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS WITH SCATTERED RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER SOUTH.
ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH... AN OLD STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE
TO PLAY A ROLE IN WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
GULF COAST STATES AS LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERRUNS
THE BOUNDARY. A MOISTURE RICH AIRMASS ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH SHOULD
SUPPORT FORECAST WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES
FROM EAST TEXAS TO GEORGIA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE PRESENCE OF A
MODERATE WESTERLY JET IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL HELP TO QUICKLY SPREAD PRECIPITATION ELEMENTS
TOWARD THE EAST WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR AND NORTH
OF THE FRONT.
LOOKING EAST... A DEEP BUT WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY LIFT OFF TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH MONDAY. THE DEPARTURE OF THIS UPPER LOW WILL
BRING AN END TO THE SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS NEAR THE GREAT
LAKES FROM WEST TO EAST BEGINNING ON MONDAY... HOWEVER CLEARING
LOOKS TO BE SHORT LIVED AS THE SYSTEM FROM THE PLAINS BEGINS TO
IMPACT THE GREAT LAKES LATER THIS WEEK.
OTTO
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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