491
FXUS02 KWBC 041653
PMDEPD
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1253 PM EDT SUN OCT 04 2009
VALID 12Z WED OCT 07 2009 - 12Z SUN OCT 11 2009
THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES SHOW GOOD LARGE SCALE MEDIUM RANGE
AGREEMENT IN SHOWING AN AMPLIFYING RIDGE EXTENDING ALOFT FROM THE
NERN PAC TO ERN AK AND WRN CANADA. BRIEFLY...ADDITIONAL ENERGY
MOVING AROUND ITS EASTERN PERIPHERY BROADENS THE TROUGH ACROSS
SOUTHERN CANADA/NORTHERN PLAINS...WHICH EJECTS LINGERING ENERGY
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST. DETAIL ISSUES ARE MORE REASONABLE AND
MAINLY CONFINED TO LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHERE THE 00Z ECMWF MOVES
A MODERATELY STRONG CYCLONE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE
MID-SOUTH INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...WITH MINIMAL ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT. THE 00Z GFS/00Z CANADIAN APPEAR TO HAVE BETTER ENSEMBLE
SUPPORT LATE. THE HIGHER RESOLUTION ECMWF DEPICTION REMAINS
PLAUSIBLE BUT LESS LIKELY. OVERALL PREFER TO MAINTAIN GOOD HPC
CONTINUITY AS PER A 50-50 BLENDED COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE SIMILAR
00Z ECMWF/00Z GFS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE SWITCHING TO MORE
OF A 00Z CANADIAN/GFS SOLUTION THEREAFTER...WITH ONLY A HINT OF 00
UTC ECMWF GUIDANCE ADJUSTED MANUALLY MIXED IN DAYS 6/7. THE 12
UTC GFS SEEMS GENERALLY IN LINE WITH THIS HPC BLENDED SOLUTION FOR
THE MOST PART SO WE SEE NO COMPELLING REASON TO MAKE ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO HPC GUIDANCE FOR OUR FINAL PROG EDITION.
ROTH/SCHICHTEL
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