379
FXUS01 KWBC 121958
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
357 PM EDT MON OCT 12 2009
VALID 00Z TUE OCT 13 2009 - 12Z WED OCT 14 2009
...VERY HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF
CALIFORNIA...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
REMNANTS OF TYPHOON MELOR ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE EASTERN
PACIFIC...BRINGING A COPIOUS AMOUNT OF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE
USHERED INTO CALIFORNIA BY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS. SCATTERED RAINS
THIS EVENING WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT...WITH MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED ALONG MANY OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COASTAL RANGES AND SIERRA BY DAYBREAK TOMORROW. THESE
RAINS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BEFORE DIMINISHING
EARLY WED. SNOW AT THE ONSET CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS SOME OF THE
HIGHER SIERRA PEAKS...HOWEVER GIVEN THE WARM TROPICAL NATURE OF
THIS SYSTEM...THIS SHOULD BE A MOSTLY TO ALL RAIN EVENT ACROSS
MOST OF THE STATE. BEFORE ENDING...SOME REGIONS...IN PARTICULAR
THE AFOREMENTIONED COASTAL RANGES AND SIERRA...COULD SEE SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAIN FROM THIS EVENT. FLASH FLOODING IS A DEFINITE
CONCERN...ESPECIALLY WHERE SIGNIFICANT RAINS FALL ACROSS BURN
SCARRED AREAS.
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S....UNSETTLED CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD EASTWARD FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THROUGH THE
NORTHERN AND THE CENTRAL GREAT BASIN TO THE ROCKIES.
HOWEVER...PRECIPITATION ACROSS THESE REGIONS IS GENERALLY EXPECTED
TO BE MORE SCATTERED AND LIGHTER IN NATURE THAN THAT ACROSS
CALIFORNIA.
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S....MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINS
CURRENTLY FALLING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST
STATES SHOULD MOVE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATER THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...A VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED
FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE SOUTHEAST. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LIFTING INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS EXPECTED TO
INTERACT WITH THIS AIRMASS...SPURRING THE REDEVELOPMENT OF
ORGANIZED MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS THAT ARE FORECAST TO
MOVE EASTWARD FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TOMORROW MORNING TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND SOUTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SHOULD BEGIN TO TAP SOME OF THIS DEEPER
MOISTURE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...FUELING SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING A LIGHT WINTRY MIX ALONG THE NORTHERN
EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD.
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST...SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE
PRECIPITATION...INCLUDING SOME HIGHER ELEVATION SNOWS ACROSS THE
ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND RANGES...CAN BE EXPECTED AS A
VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES RAPIDLY FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
TO THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TOMORROW MORNING.
PEREIRA
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