910
FXUS01 KWBC 132014
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
413 PM EDT TUE OCT 13 2009
VALID 00Z WED OCT 14 2009 - 12Z THU OCT 15 2009
..VERY ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN U.S
A ROBUST PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM ALREADY PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINS
AND STRONG WINDS ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO ADVANCE
GRADUALLY NORTHWARD OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. DEEPLY
LAYERED ONSHORE FLOW OUT AHEAD OF THE LOW CENTER SHOULD ALLOW
MOISTURE AND ENERGY TO OVERRUN MUCH OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION
AND INTO THE WEST FACING SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES...WHICH WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY
PRECIPITATION. OVERALL...THE BEST THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINS WILL
AGAIN BE CONFINED TO CALIFORNIA WHERE HEAVIER RAINFALL RATES ARE
EXPECTED...AND FALLING OVER BURN AREAS WHICH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO
ENHANCED RUN-OFF PROBLEMS. DRIER WEATHER SHOULD BEGIN TO ENSUE
ALONG THE WEST COAST BY THURSDAY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW CENTER
LIFTS FARTHER NORTH...AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION.
THE STORM TRACK IS ALSO EXPECTED TO BE ACTIVE OVER MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S. AS SEVERAL UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL BE WORKING
EJECTING ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AND THEN
ADVANCING INTO THE MISSISSIPPI AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS. A
WELL-DEFINED FRONT DRAPED OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES WILL ACT
AS A FOCUS FOR MULTIPLE WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE AND COUPLED WITH
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD GENERATE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
PRECIPITATION. THE HEAVIEST RAINS SHOULD BE ACROSS THE GULF COAST
STATES AND BY THURSDAY THERE MAY BE A THREAT FOR SOME SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS THIS REGION TOO.
VERY COOL AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL TEND TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
FARTHER NORTH FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS EAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND INTO THE NORTHEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WELL BELOW NORMAL AND THERE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT COLD AIR IN PLACE
FOR SOME ADDITIONAL WINTRY PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IN PARTICULAR. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION SHOULD
REMAIN GENERALLY DRY.
ORRISON
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