900
FXCA20 KWBC 061251
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
850 AM EDT WED JUN 06 2012
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. UPPER RIDGE
OVER WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND TUTT TO THE EAST ACROSS USVI/WESTERN
VENEZUELA INTO COLOMBIA. TUTT IS STILL CONSTRAINED TO ABOVE 400
HPA LIMITING ITS POTENTIAL EFFECTS AT LOW LEVELS. DRY AIR
CONTINUES IN PLACE OVER PUERTO RICO/USVI WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION NOW AT 800 MB. ISOLATED SHALLOW CONVECTION WAS OCCURRING
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE ISLAND IN THE FORM OF VERY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS LOCATED AT 65W AND TO THE SOUTH OF
17W...ERODING THE SOUTHERN END OF THE DRY AND STABLE AIR IN PLACE
OVER THE NORTHERN ANTILLES.
ALTHOUGH DRY PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST...MODEL AND SATELLITE
DATA SUGGEST A TRANSIENT MOISTURE SURGE AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
TO AFFECT THE ISLAND TODAY...AS TROPICAL WAVE MOVES WESTWARD. BEST
TIMING FOR CONVECTION WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
TODAY...WHEN WEAKENING CONVECTION FROM THE NORTHERN FRINGES OF THE
TROPICAL WAVE ARE FORECAST TO ARRIVE IN THE ISLAND EMBEDDED IN A
DEEP LAYER SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. ACCORDINGLY...EXPECT DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING CLOUDINESS AND PRECIPITATION
DURING EVENING INTO EARLY MORNING HOURS. CELLS WILL MOVE
NORTHWESTWARD AND THE CHANCE FOR LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS WILL
CONCENTRATE ON EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND. MODELS SHOW MAXIMA
RANGING BETWEEN 15-30MM/DAY IN REGIONS SUBJECT TO TRAINING CELLS.
THE HRWRF-ARW HAS A SLIGHTLY WETTER SOLUTION THAN THE NMM VERSION.
YET...WE ARE LEANING TOWARDS THE DRIER END...AS PERTURBED AIRMASS
IS MOVING INTO A REGION OF HIGH STABILITY AND LOW MOISTURE.
MARINERO...DGOA/MARN (EL SALVADOR)
SOLORZANO...SMN (HONDURAS)
CANTILLO...IDEAM (COLOMBIA)
GALVEZ...HPC (USA)
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