801
FXCA20 KWBC 261831
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
231 PM EDT TUE JUN 26 2012
AT 15 UTC...TS DEBBY CENTERED NEAR 28.9N 84.2W...WITH MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35KT...MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 993 HPA. THE
STORM IS MOVING TO THE EAST AT 03KT.
DISCUSSION FROM JUN 26/00 UTC: AT UPPER LEVELS...A TUTT OVER SOUTH
TEXAS/NORTHERN MEXICO SEPARATES TWO RIDGES...ONE OVER BAJA
PENINSULA/EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE OTHER OVER THE GULF OF
MEXICO-WESTERN CARIBBEAN. AS THE RIDGE TO THE EAST BUILDS ACROSS
THE GULF...IT WILL DISPLACE THE TUTT FARTHER WEST ACROSS NORTHERN
MEXICO. THROUGH 60-72 HRS THE TROUGH WILL BECOME NARROW AND
ELONGATED AS SHORT WAVE ENERGY SHEARS NORTHWARD ALONG THE FRINGES
OF THE RIDGE TO THE EAST. AS IT MIGRATES FARTHER INLAND...IT WILL
ENHANCE UPPER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL...
CAPPING/INHIBITING DIURNAL CONVECTION BETWEEN SONORA/CHIHUAHUA TO
DURANGO/NAYARIT. CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT WILL LIMIT TO THE SIERRA
MADRE DEL SUR...MAINLY ACROSS GUERRERO-MICHOACAN TO JALISCO. IN
THIS AREA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
35-70MM/DAY THROUGH 36 HRS. AT 36-60 HRS THE MAXIMA WILL DECREASE
TO 20-30MM/DAY...WHILE ON DAY 03 AN INCREASE IS EXPECTED WITH
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM.
THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CARIBBEAN/GULF OF MEXICO CENTERS ON A
CLOSED HIGH OVER QUINTANA ROO IN THE YUCATAN. THROUGH 48 HRS THE
HIGH WILL RELOCATE TO THE WESTERN GULF/CAMPECHE SOUND...WHERE IT
IS TO MEANDER THROUGH 72-96 HRS. AT MID LEVELS...IT REFLECTS AS AN
EAST-TO-WEST RIDGE...ORIGINATING OVER THE ATLANTIC NEAR 24N 60W...
THEN WEST ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TO THE SOUTHERN STATES OF
MEXICO. THIS RIDGE IS STEERING TS DEBBY EAST ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA.
BUT AS IT PULLS AWAY...ON ITS WAKE...A NARROW TROUGH WILL REMAIN
ACROSS THE GULF/THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. MODELS FOLLOW PREVIOUSLY
NOTED TREND WHERE THIS FEATURE IS TO WEAKEN/FILL AS THE CYCLE
PROGRESSES. MEANWHILE...THIS WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA TO THE SOUTHERN STATES OF MEXICO...TO SUSTAIN
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY. ACROSS
THE YUCATAN THIS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA
OF 15-20MM/DAY BY 72-96 HRS....WHILE OVER SOUTHERN CHIAPAS
EXPECTING ACCUMULATION OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. THIS
IS TO ALSO FAVOR SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...WITH
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM/DAY. THROUGH
48-72 HRS THIS DECREASES TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.
ACROSS HONDURAS-EL SALVADOR TO NICARAGUA...UNDER INFLUENCE OF THE
MID LEVEL RIDGE...DIURNAL CONVECTION IS TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM/DAY. MODELS SHOW A
SLIGHT INCREASE ON DAY 02...WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM. A SOMEWHAT MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS COSTA RICA TO PANAMA...WHERE UNDER
INFLUENCE OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC ITCZ WE EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH UPPER TUTT ENTERING THE FORECAST AREA (SEE BELOW FOR
DETAILS). OTHER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA TO
NORTHWEST VENEZUELA...WHERE THE ITCZ/NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM/DAY.
ANOTHER TUTT BOUNDS THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CARIBBEAN
RIDGE... WITH AXIS SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TO
NORTHERN COLOMBIA. PUERTO RICO/HISPANIOLA WILL REMAIN ON THE
CONVERGENT SIDE OF THE UPPER RIDGE/TROUGH PAIR. THIS WILL TEND TO
INHIBIT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. SOME CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FRENCH-LEEWARD ISLANDS...WITH THE TROUGH ALOFT
VENTING DEEP CONVECTION AS ITCZ MOISTURE POOLS ACROSS THESE
ISLANDS. THIS IS TO SUSTAIN RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY THROUGH 36 HRS. AFTERWARDS...EXPECT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM/DAY. MOST ACTIVE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ALONG THE TAIL END OF THE TUTT AS IT IS TO
ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHWEST VENEZUELA-NORTHERN
COLOMBIA...WHERE IN INTERACTION WITH THE NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH WE
EXPECT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY.
THROUGH 48-60 HRS...THE TUTT WILL SHEAR A CLOSED LOW THAT
RETROGRESSES TO THE SOUTHERN CARIBBEAN. AS IT REACHES
PANAMA-JAMAICA IT WILL FAVOR AN INCREASE IN CONVECTION. ACROSS
JAMAICA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15MM...WHILE OVER PANAMA/NORTHERN COLOMBIA EXPECT ACCUMULATION OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY. THIS IS TO THEN ENHANCE
CONVECTION ACROSS NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA TO FAVOR ACCUMULATION OF
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.
PERTURBATIONS IN THE EASTERLIES...INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 TYPE
35W 37W 39W 41W 43W 46W 48W TW
56W 59W 61W 64W 66W 69W 71W TW
70W 73W 76W 78W 80W 82W 84W EW
A TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 35W WILL FAVOR SCATTERED CONVECTION ALONG
THE ATLANTIC ITCZ.
A WEAK TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 56W WILL INTERACT WITH THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. AS IT MOVES
ACROSS THE GUIANAS IT WILL FAVOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY. ACROSS CENTRAL-WESTERN VENEZUELA EXPECT
SIMILAR AMOUNTS ON DAY 02...TO EXPAND ACROSS NORTHWEST VENEZUELA
TO NORTHERN COLOMBIA ON DAY 03.
A EASTERLY WAVE ALONG 70W SUSTAINS ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS WESTERN VENEZUELA/PIEDEMONTE LLANERO-SANTANDERES IN EASTERN
COLOMBIA. IN THIS AREA EXPECTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY
AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY...TO EXPAND WEST ACROSS NORTHERN
COLOMBIA THROUGH 36-42 HRS. OVER PANAMA-COSTA RICA...IN
INTERACTION WITH THE TUTT ALOFT...IT IS TO THEN FAVOR RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY.
MARINERO...DGOA/MARN (EL SALVADOR)
SOLORZANO...SMN (HONDURAS)
CANTILLO...IDEAM (COLOMBIA)
GALVEZ...HPC (USA)
DAVISON...HPC (USA)
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