502
FXCA20 KWBC 091810
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
209 PM EDT MON JUL 09 2012
AT 15 UTC...HURRICANE EMILIA CENTERED NEAR 12.6N AND 109.9W...WITH
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 85KT. THE STORM IS MOVING TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 10KT.
DISCUSSION FROM JUL 09/00 UTC: A TUTT EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL
MEXICO AND IS RETROGRESSING INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC. ALTHOUGH
TUTT WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION OVER THE SIERRA MADRE
OCCIDENTAL/CENTRAL MEXICO LOCALLY...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS
LIMITED WITH RESPECT TO PREVIOUS DAYS. THUS EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS
OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY TO AFFECT THE SIERRA
MADRE OCCIDENTAL...CHIHUAHUA...AND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO
FROM JALISCO/NAYARIT INTO PUEBLA/TLAXCALA THROUGH 36 HRS.
PERSISTENT BUT DISORGANIZED MID-LEVEL TROUGH PATTERN OVER CENTRAL
MEXICO WILL GRADUALLY ERODE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION.
FURTHERMORE...BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY
THROUGH THE CYCLE...AS TRANSPORTED BY EASTERLY WAVES AND CYCLONES
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS ARE SHOWING A DEEP MOISTURE POOL
SURGING NORTHWARD ALONG GULF OF CALIFORNIA...WHICH WILL RESULT IN
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE SIERRA MADRE
OCCIDENTAL AND SINALOA BY 60-84 HRS. EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OF
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM/DAY. OVER CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF
MEXICO...EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO INCREASE TO 10-15MM/DAY AND LOCAL
MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY. OVER SOUTHERN COAST OF
MEXICO/YUCATAN...ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MODULATED BY ARRIVING
EASTERLY WAVE (SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS).
TO THE EAST OVER CUBA/BAHAMAS...AN ACTIVE PATTERN WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE CYCLE WHILE TUTT REMAINS ACROSS THE BAHAMAS-FLORIDA
STRAIGHT-GULF OF MEXICO. IN INTERACTION WITH WEAK EASTERLY WAVE
(SEE BELOW)...SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE CYCLE
INCLUDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL
LEAD TO ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY
OVER CUBA...AND SLIGHTLY LOWER ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE BAHAMAS.
EXPECT AN INCREASE BY 60-84 HRS AS AN EASTERLY WAVE ARRIVES. THIS
WILL LEAD TO LOCALIZED MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY OVER CUBA...AND
MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY OVER THE BAHAMAS. OVER HISPANIOLA EXPECT
ACCUMULATIONS TO PEAK EARLY IN THE CYCLE AS EASTERLY WAVE
PROGRESSES THROUGH THE AREA. OTHERWISE...PREVAILING RIDGE PATTERN
AND SUBSIDENCE INVERSION WILL LEAD TO GENERALLY LIGHT AMOUNTS IN
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION...PRODUCING ACCUMULATIONS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY. SLIGHTLY LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE LESSER ANTILLES THROUGH THE
CYCLE...WHILE MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE DOMINATE
THE SCENE.
OVER NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY
MODULATED BY TROPICAL AND EASTERLY WAVES. SEE BELOW FOR DETAILS.
OVER PANAMA/COSTA RICA...LITTLE VARIATION IN ACCUMULATIONS IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE CYCLE...WITH HIGHEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION
OVER SOUTHERN PANAMA THROUGH 36 HRS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IS EXPECTED
OVER PANAMA LATE THROUGH THE CYCLE AS LOW OVER GULF OF PANAMA
INTENSIFIES. OVER CHOCO AND WESTERN COLOMBIA...EXPECT ACTIVE
PATTERN WITH ACCUMULATIONS INCREASING THROUGH THE CYCLE ALSO
ASSOCIATED WITH INTENSIFIED LOW OVER GULF OF PANAMA. EXPECT
ACCUMULATIONS PEAKING BY 60-84 HRS REACHING 15-20MM/DAY AND LOCAL
MAXIMA OF 35-70MM/DAY.
TO THE EAST OVER CENTRAL COLOMBIA AND SOUTHERN VENEZUELA...THE
NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH (NET) WILL REMAIN ACTIVE THROUGH THE CYCLE
ENHANCING CONVECTION IN THE AREA. SOME ADDITIONAL ENHANCEMENT IS
EXPECTED AS TUTT MEANDERS OVER COLOMBIA/WESTERN VENEZUELA...IN A
REGION THAT DIVIDES AN UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE
RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. ACCORDINGLY...EXPECT
ACCUMULATIONS PEAKING AT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY BY
60-84 HRS.
PERTURBATIONS IN THE EASTERLIES...INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 TYPE
46W 48W 51W 54W 57W 59W 62W TW
64W 67W 71W 75W 78W 81W 84W EW
80W 82W 85W 87W 89W 91W 94W EW
97W 99W 101W 102W 103W 105W 106W TW
A TROPICAL WAVE AT 46W IS WELL DEFINED. THIS WAVE WILL ARRIVE INTO
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN BY 84 HRS. YET...UNDER INFLUENCE OF
MID-LEVEL RIDGE...IT WILL ONLY PRODUCE A SLIGHT ENHANCEMENT IN
CONVECTION THAT WILL RESULT IN ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 15MM/DAY OVER PUERTO RICO...AND OVER LESSER ANTILLES
00-05MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 10MM/DAY. OVER THE GUIANAS...THE WAVE
WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY BY 36-60 HRS.
EASTERLY WAVE AT 64W CONTINUES TO BE BETTER DEFINED AT 700 HPA.
THE WAVE IS ALSO NOT PRODUCING ANY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN
CONVECTION...ONLY VENTING A FEW SMALL CELLS AS IT CROSSES PUERTO
RICO INTO HISPANIOLA. THE WAVE IS MORE DEFINED OVER NORTHERN SOUTH
AMERICA...LEADING TO ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-35MM/DAY OVER NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA.
AN RECENTLY FORMED EASTERLY WAVE EXTENDS ALONG 80W AND IS
ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG CENTRAL CUBA/CAYMAN ISLANDS. THIS WAVE
IS WILL MOVE OVER HONDURAS EARLY IN THE CYCLE...OVER
YUCATAN/BELIZE BY 48-60 HRS AND THEN INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AS IT
GRADUALLY BECOMES ILL-DEFINED. THE WAVE WILL PRODUCE A MOISTURE
SURGE ALONG THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA/YUCATAN/SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO THAT WILL ENHANCE
CONVECTION GRADUALLY THROUGH THE CYCLE. OVER EASTERN
HONDURAS...EXPECT 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM/DAY THROUGH 36
HRS...WHILE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF HONDURAS AND EL SALVADOR
ACCUMULATIONS ARE TO RANGE AROUND 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-20MM/DAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL INCREASE BY 36-60 HRS LEADING TO
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM/DAY OVER EL SALVADOR/WESTERN
HONDURAS. OVER YUCATAN...ACCUMULATIONS WILL INCREASE TO
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY. OVER GUATEMALA/SOUTHERN
MEXICO...EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS PEAKING AT 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
30-60MM/DAY BY 60-84 HRS. ALSO NOTICE THAT OVER CENTRAL
AMERICA...PATTERN WILL BE FAVORED BY UPPER RIDGE PRESENT OVER THE
REGION...THAT WILL HELP TO VENTILATE CONVECTION.
FURTHERMORE...DEEP MOISTURE AND WAVE PASSAGE WILL FAVOR COASTAL
CONVECTION ACROSS WESTERN NICARAGUA-GULF OF FONSECA-COASTAL EL
SALVADOR/WESTERN GUATEMALA...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE IN NOCTURNAL/EARLY MORNING CONVECTION.
TROPICAL WAVE AT 97W IS FORECAST TO FORM A CLOSED CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION. IN THE MEAN TIME...THE WAVE IS FAVORING DEEP MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INTO THE SOUTHERN COAST OF MEXICO FAVORING ACCUMULATIONS
OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY THROUGH 36 HRS.
MARINERO...DGOA/MARN (EL SALVADOR)
CANTILLO...IDEAM (COLOMBIA)
GALVEZ...HPC (USA)
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