896
FXCA20 KWBC 301810
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
210 PM EDT MON JUL 30 2012
NOTICE...THE INTERNATIONAL DESKS WILL EXPERIENCE AN INTERRUPTION
OF SERVICES AUGUST 17-24 AS WE RELOCATE TO A NEW FACILITY.
PRODUCTS WILL BE UNAVAILABLE DURING THIS PERIOD. PRODUCTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RESUME ON AUGUST 27.
DISCUSSION FROM JUL 30/00 UTC: A MORE QUIET PATTERN ACROSS MEXICO
IS ESTABLISHING AS STRONG MID/UPPER FORCING AND DEEP
BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE FROM LAST WEEK HAVE DECREASED. CURRENT
PATTERN HAS AN UPPER RIDGE ESTABLISHED ACROSS TEXAS/OKLAHOMA WITH
STRONG SIGNATURE AT MID-LEVELS. THIS WILL SUSTAIN A PERSISTENT
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION ACROSS NORTHEAST MEXICO THAT WILL LEAD TO
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER THROUGH THE CYCLE. MODELS FORECAST TUTT
LOWS RETROGRESSING IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO INTO THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL.
EFFECT OF TUTTS ON CONVECTION...HOWEVER...WILL BE COMPROMISED BY
STRONG RIDGE AT MID-LEVELS. THUS...EXPECT MOST ACTIVE DIURNAL
CONVECTION TO REMAIN ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL/WEST COAST
OF MEXICO AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS OF MEXICO.
ACROSS THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL...EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY THROUGH THE CYCLE. EXPECT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS TO AFFECT COASTAL LOCATIONS OF
SINALOA AND SONORA AS WELL EARLY IN THE CYCLE. ACROSS EJE
VOLCANICO INTO SOUTHWEST MEXICO...EXPECT SIMILAR AMOUNTS THROUGH
THE CYCLE. ACROSS YUCATAN/SOUTHEASTERN MEXICO...EXPECT LITTLE OR
NO CHANGE IN DIURNAL PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE CYCLE WITH ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION PRODUCING ALSO ACCUMULATIONS OF
05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY. CONVECTION WILL DECREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY AFTER 60 HRS. A SLIGHT INCREASE ALONG
OAXACA/CHIAPAS IS EXPECTED BY MID-LATE CYCLE AS EASTERLY WAVE
PROGRESSES TO THE SOUTH.
ACROSS NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA...EXPECT CONVECTION ENHANCEMENT
EARLY IN THE CYCLE ASSOCIATED WITH ACTIVE EASTERLY WAVE. ACROSS
THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN PLAINS COSTA
RICA/NICARAGUA/HONDURAS...EXPECTING ACCUMULATIONS REACHING
15-20MM/DAY AND GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY THROUGH 60 HRS.
NOTE THAT ISOLATED MAXIMA EXCEEDING THESE AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE.
ACROSS MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NICARAGUA/SOUTHERN HONDURAS/EL
SALVADOR/GUATEMALA...EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY THROUGH 36 HRS. MAXIMA WILL DECREASE TO
15-25MM/DAY AFTERWARDS AS EASTERLY WAVE MOVES AWAY AND CONVECTION
BECOMES MORE ISOLATED. ACROSS BELIZE/NORTHERN HONDURAS...EXPECT
ENHANCEMENT EARLY IN THE CYCLE AS TUTT TO THE ACROSS WESTERN CUBA
MEANDERS CLOSE TO THE REGION. TUTT WILL ENHANCE A FEW CONVECTIVE
CELLS THAT DEVELOP...PRODUCING ACCUMULATIONS OF 10-15MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY THROUGH 36 HRS. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE.
ACROSS PANAMA/COSTA RICA AND NORTHERN CHOCO IN
COLOMBIA...STRONGEST CONVECTION AND LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH 36 HRS AS EASTERLY WAVE MOVES AWAY. EXPECT ALSO
SOME ENHANCEMENT BY NEWLY-DEVELOPED MID-LEVEL TROUGH FORECAST TO
MEANDER TO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST OF COSTA RICA THROUGH 36-60 HRS.
EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY
THROUGH 60 HRS...DECREASING TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
20-40MM/DAY AFTERWARDS.
ACROSS COLOMBIA...MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS
NORTHERN CHOCO AND NORTHERN LOWLANDS...WHERE EXPECTING
ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION. ALONG NORTHERN COAST/PLAINS AND SIERRA DE
SANTA MARTA EXPECT HIGHEST CHANCE FOR STRONG CONVECTION AND HEAVY
RAINFALL BY 36-72 HRS...AS TROPICAL WAVE ACROSS CARIBBEAN
INCREASES LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/PRECIPITABLE WATER ACROSS THE
REGION. EXPECTING LOCAL MAXIMA TO INCREASE TO 30-60MM/DAY...TO
DECREASE AFTER 72 HRS. TO THE EAST OF THE ANDES...MOST ACTIVE
CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH AND
MODULATED BY TROPICAL WAVE TO THE NORTH. EXPECT HEAVIEST
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS VENEZUELAN LLANOS THROUGH 36 HRS TO PRODUCE
15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY. MAXIMA WILL DECREASE TO
25-50MM/DAY AFTERWARDS...AS AREA OF MOST WIDESPREAD/STRONGEST
CONVECTION MEANDERS EASTWARD. ACROSS THE GUIANAS...EXPECT A
GRADUAL INCREASE IN ACCUMULATIONS AS TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM
THE EAST. EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
15-25MM/DAY INCREASING TO 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY BY
60-84 HRS.
OVER THE CARIBBEAN ISLES...PRECIPITATION WILL BE MOSTLY MODULATED
BY WELL ORGANIZED TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY CROSSING THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN. WAVE WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION ACROSS PUERTO
RICO/USVI/PASAJE DE LA MONA EARLY IN THE CYCLE TO PRODUCE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM/DAY WITH THE
RISK OF NOCTURNAL MCS FORMATION. NOTE THAT LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT. ACROSS THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC/HAITI...STRONGEST PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED BY 36-60 HRS
WITH ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-25MM/DAY AND GENERALIZED MAXIMA OF
30-60MM/DAY. ISOLATED HEAVIER AMOUNTS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE IN
INTERACTION WITH OROGRAPHY. THE WAVE WILL THEN ENHANCE CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS/TURK AND CAICOS PRODUCING
ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY IN
SCATTERED CONVECTION. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS JAMAICA
AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL CUBA...MEANDERING
TUTT LOW WILL ENHANCE DIURNAL CONVECTION LOCALLY TO SUSTAIN
ISOLATED ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY
THROUGH 48-60 HRS.
PERTURBATIONS IN THE EASTERLIES...INITIALIZED AT 12UTC
INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 TYPE
37W 39W 41W 44W 47W 50W 53W TW
63W 65W 69W 72W 75W 79W 82W TW
76W 79W 82W 85W 88W 91W 95W TW
84W 86W 89W 92W 95W 98W 101W EW
101W 104W 106W 109W 112W 115W 118W EW
A TROPICAL WAVE INITIALIZED AT 37W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 14N IS WELL
DEFINED WHILE CROSSING THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. THIS WAVE WILL
ARRIVE INTO FRENCH GUIANA AND SURINAME BY 84 HRS ENHANCING
CONVECTION TO PRODUCE ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
25-50MM/DAY.
A POTENT TROPICAL WAVE IS CROSSING THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND IS
INITIALIZED AT 63W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 20N. THIS WAVE IS ENHANCING
CONVECTION ACROSS THE ANTILLES AND HAS THE POTENTIAL OF DEVELOPING
A NOCTURNAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM AS IT PROGRESSES INTO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ACROSS PUERTO RICO/USVI...EXPECT A PEAK IN
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH 36 HRS REACHING 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF
35-70MM/DAY WITH THE CHANCE OF LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. ACROSS THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC/HAITI...EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND
MAXIMA OF 30-60MM/DAY. ACROSS JAMAICA AND THE BAHAMAS...EXPECT
ACCUMULATIONS OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-25MM/DAY.
A MUCH WEAKER TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS
INITIALIZED AT 76W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 17N. THIS WAVE IS MORE
DEFINED AT MID-LEVELS AND IS SHOWING LITTLE EFFECT IN LOCAL
CONVECTION.
AN EASTERLY WAVE THAT ENHANCED CONVECTION ACROSS COLOMBIA AND
PANAMA DURING THE WEEKEND IS NOW INITIALIZED AT 84W AND TO THE
SOUTH OF 17N. THIS WAVE IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION
ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN PLAINS OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE WAVE IS
FORECAST TO CROSS INTO THE PACIFIC OCEAN BY 30-36 HRS AFFECTING
MOST OF NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA AND PARTS OF NORTHERN CENTRAL
AMERICA. ACROSS EASTERN HONDURAS/NICARAGUA/COSTA RICA...EXPECT
ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM/DAY. ACROSS
MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NICARAGUA/HONDURAS/EL
SALVADOR/GUATEMALA...EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS TO INCREASE TO
10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM/DAY.
AN EASTERLY WAVE INITIALIZED AT 104W AND TO THE SOUTH OF 17N IS
GRADUALLY EXITING THE FORECAST DOMAIN WITH LIMITED INFLUENCE IN
THE CONTINENT.
MARINERO...DGOA/MARN (EL SALVADOR)
CANTILLO...IDEAM (COLOMBIA)
DAVISON...HPC (USA)
GALVEZ...HPC (USA)
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