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FXUS01 KWBC 020850
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
449 AM EDT THU AUG 02 2012
VALID 12Z THU AUG 02 2012 - 12Z SAT AUG 04 2012
...THE HEAT WAVE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...
...THE PRIMARY THREATS FOR SEVERE WEATHER SHOULD FOCUS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST...
...AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL IMPACT THE UPPER
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...
AN UPPER RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL REMAIN A KEY FEATURE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ALTHOUGH
GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED...HOT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL BE
AN ISSUE TO DEAL WITH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS THE MERCURY
RISES WELL ABOVE THE CENTURY MARK. IN FACT...FORECAST HIGHS OVER
SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA SHOULD EXCEED 110 DEGREES INCLUDING THE MAJOR
CITIES OF OKLAHOMA CITY AND TULSA ON THURSDAY. WHILE THE HUMIDITY
IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE OPPRESSIVE...THE ADDED MOISTURE TO THE AIR
WILL BRING HEAT INDICES TO NEAR 115 DEGREES AT TIMES. WITH SUCH
HEAT IN PLACE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS WILL BE FEATURED OVER
EASTERN OKLAHOMA WHILE SURROUNDING LOCALES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNDER HEAT ADVISORIES. SOME RELIEF MAY BE IN SIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE REGION DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
A WELL-DEVELOPED UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHWESTERN
ALBERTA SHOULD CONTINUE DROPPING SOUTH IN TIME WITH THE TROUGH
AXIS REACHING WESTERN MONTANA BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST
MODELS SUGGEST THIS SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTH TOWARD THE
WYOMING BORDER BEFORE TURNING EASTWARD INTO THE DAKOTAS BY THE
FIRST PART OF THE WEEKEND. OUT AHEAD OF THIS APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE...DRY AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE COMMONPLACE OVER AREAS
OF THE UPPER INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/NORTHERN ROCKIES WHICH HAS
RESULTED IN THE ISSUANCES OF NUMEROUS RED FLAG WARNINGS. AS A
RESULT...AN INHERENT FIRE WEATHER DANGER WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
IDAHO...MONTANA...AND WYOMING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE OTHER
ASPECT OF THIS WEATHER FEATURE WILL BE THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE APPROACHING COLD
FRONT. CONVECTION SHOULD FORM JUST AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY BY
THURSDAY EVENING WITH THE RAINFALL SPREADING EASTWARD AS THE UPPER
TROUGH PUSHES TOWARD THE UPPER MIDWEST. OVERALL...THE NORTHERN
PLAINS/UPPER MIDWEST ARE IN THE BEST LOCATION FOR SEVERE WEATHER
GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING ALOFT AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS.
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE COUNTRY...MONSOONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER ARIZONA AND UP TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.
HOWEVER...THE UPPER IMPULSES WHICH HELPED INVIGORATE A MORE
CONCENTRATED AXIS OF CONVECTION EARLIER IN THE WEEK WILL BE LESS
PROMINENT RESULTING IN MORE SCATTERED RAINFALL IN THIS FORECAST
PERIOD. OFF TO THE EAST...WEAK DISTURBANCES PROPAGATING THROUGH
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TOWARD THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.
WILL FOCUS AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. FURTHER
NORTH...AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED STORMS
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEASTERN U.S.
RUBIN-OSTER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT WWW.HPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV
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