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FXCA20 KWBC 021124
PMDCA
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
723 AM EDT THU AUG 02 2012
NOTICE...THE INTERNATIONAL DESKS WILL EXPERIENCE AN INTERRUPTION
OF SERVICES AUGUST 17-24 AS WE RELOCATE TO A NEW FACILITY.
PRODUCTS WILL BE UNAVAILABLE DURING THIS PERIOD. PRODUCTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RESUME ON AUGUST 27.
COR
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. AN UPPER
RIDGE CENTERS ON A HIGH JUST NORTH OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. AT
MID LEVELS...A WEAKER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL VENEZUELA INTO
23N 65W ACROSS PUERTO RICO. AT LOWER LEVELS...WINDS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING EASTERLIES IN THE BOUNDARY-LAYER AND ADVECTING A DRIER
AIR MASS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...WITH PWAT BELOW 40MM.
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION HAS REESTABLISHED AND EXTENDS AT 825-850 HPA.
UNDER THIS STABLE PATTERN...CONVECTION WAS WIDELY
ISOLATED...SHALLOW...AND PRODUCING VERY WEAK ECHOES ON THE PUERTO
RICO RADAR.
MODELS SHOW QUIET PATTERN PERSISTING THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...WHEN NEXT TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WAVE IS NOT FORECAST TO PROGRESS AS FAR NORTH AS
THE ONE FROM EARLY THIS WEEK...AND SEEMS THAT HIGHEST PWAT AND
STRONGEST FORCING WILL LIKELY REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE ISLANDS.
STILL...EXPECT A SHORT PERIOD DURING SATURDAY EVENING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING WHEN PWAT VALUES WILL EXCEED 55MM. THE WETTEST OF ALL
MODELS IS THE UKMET WITH TOTALS OF 25-50MM/DAY SINCE IT HAS THE
MOST NORTHWARD TRACK OF ARRIVING PERTURBATION. YET...THE ECMWF AND
GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS PREFER TO MAINTAIN STRONGEST FORCING SOUTH OF
THE ISLANDS...LIMITING AMOUNTS TO 15-25MM/DAY. THE LATTER IS
PREFERRED...ALTHOUGH ADJUSTMENTS TO PRECIPITATION FORECASTS MAY BE
NEEDED IN TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY ONCE THE OUTPUT FROM HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS BECOMES AVAILABLE. BEST PERIOD FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL LIKELY BE SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS.
CANTILLO...IDEAM (COLOMBIA)
SOLANO...IMN (COSTA RICA)
GALVEZ...HPC (USA)
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