633  
FXUS01 KWBC 091958  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
357 PM EDT MON OCT 09 2017  
 
VALID 00Z TUE OCT 10 2017 - 00Z THU OCT 12 2017  
 
...A THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN  
KANSAS/EASTERN OKLAHOMA...  
 
...HEAVY RAINFALL WITH A POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE  
OVER SECTIONS OF EASTERN IOWA INTO ILLINOIS THROUGH TOMORROW...  
 
...NUMEROUS DAILY RECORD WARM MINIMA TO BE BROKEN FROM THE  
MISSISSIPPI RIVER EASTWARD...  
 
A COMPACT UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SWINGING THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS  
REGION WILL BE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS  
SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS. THE BEST FOCUS SHOULD BE  
IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO A SURFACE WAVE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN  
KANSAS/NORTHEASTERN OKLAHOMA. A MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS IN  
CONJUNCTION WITH ENERGETICS WITH THE PASSING TROUGH WILL  
INVIGORATE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS  
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE LATEST OUTLOOK FROM THE STORM PREDICTION  
CENTER SUGGESTS ALL SEVERE WEATHER TYPES WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH  
TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL BEING THE INITIAL THREATS. AS THIS SYSTEM  
ACCELERATES TOWARD THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON TUESDAY, THE  
SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BUT WILL STILL REMAIN A FOCUS  
FOR ORGANIZED HEAVY RAINFALL. DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, A  
BROAD AREA OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED FROM FAR EASTERN  
IOWA INTO SECTIONS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS. THERE WILL BE AN  
INHERENT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING WITHIN ANY OF THE MORE INTENSE  
BANDS OF PRECIPITATION. AS THE SYSTEM ADVANCES TOWARD THE GREAT  
LAKES, THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL BRING AN END TO THE EXTENDED  
PERIOD OF WARMTH TO MANY LOCATIONS EAST OF THE ROCKIES.  
 
IN ADVANCE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH, THE AIR MASS IN PLACE HAS BROUGHT  
CONDITIONS MORE REMINISCENT OF SUMMER THAN THE SECOND WEEK OF  
OCTOBER. DEW POINT TEMPERATURES PUSHING INTO THE 70S WILL REMAIN A  
FIXTURE IN THE FORECAST ACCOMPANIED BY HIGHS IN THE 80S AS FAR  
NORTH AS THE MID-ATLANTIC. MANY DAILY RECORDS MAY BE BROKEN FOR  
THE MILD OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. DOZENS OF LOCATIONS  
EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAY SEE RECORDS TIED OR BROKEN THE  
NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS. ON TUESDAY MORNING, THE WARMEST MINIMA FOR  
OCTOBER 10TH IN BOSTON, MASSACHUSETTS IS 64F WHILE THE FORECAST  
SUGGESTS UPPER 60S ARE LIKELY. IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, THE  
INITIAL THREAT FROM WHAT IS POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NATE WILL END  
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND LATER THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, WHILE LESS  
ORGANIZED IN NATURE, SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF  
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND  
GREAT LAKES BY MID-WEEK.  
 
ON THE CONVERSE OF THE WARMTH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES,  
WIDESPREAD FREEZE AND HARD FREEZE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM THE  
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS NORTHWARD TO THE CANADIAN BORDER. THIS IS IN  
RESPONSE TO THE EXPECTED LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO 20S TONIGHT  
WITH AN EXPECTED WARM UP ON THE ORDER OF 10 DEGREES BY THE  
FOLLOWING NIGHT. ELSEWHERE, A STRONG UPPER TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH  
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY WILL BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE  
WASHINGTON/OREGON CASCADES VIA A MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. AS THE TROUGH  
SWEEPS INLAND, SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE  
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF CENTRAL IDAHO.  
 
RUBIN-OSTER  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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