360  
FXCA20 KWBC 101908  
PMDCA  
 
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
307 PM EDT TUE OCT 10 2017  
 
TROPICAL DISCUSSION FROM OCT 10/12 UTC: UPPER TROUGH IN THE  
CENTRAL UNITED STATES IS SUSTAINING A SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT IS  
ARRIVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BY TUESDAY  
EVENING...THE FRONT WILL EXTEND INTO SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS...TO THEN  
START FRONTOLIZING. YET...THE FRONT IS INTERACTING WITH THE SEA  
BREEZE FRONT ON TUESDAY...WHICH IS TRIGGERING STRONG CONVECTION.  
THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY...EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 25-50MM IN MOST OF  
TAMAULIPAS. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...HOWEVER...A PRECIPITABLE WATER  
POOL OF OVER 50MM AND EAST-NORTHEASTERLY TRADES WILL INTERACT WITH  
THE SIERRA MADRE ORIENTAL AND LEAD TO ENHANCED MOISTURE  
CONVERGENCE. THIS WILL LEAD TO HEAVY RAIN ON TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY  
WITH AMOUNTS OF 35-70MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 75-125MM. TRADE WIND  
CONVERGENCE AND INTERACTION WITH THE MOUNTAIN RANGES IN SOUTHERN  
VERACRUZ WILL LEAD TO 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. BY  
WEDNESDAY-EARLY THURSDAY...EXPECTING AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND  
MAXIMA OF 35-70MM IN HIDALGO/NORTHERN VERACRUZ AND NORTHERN  
PUEBLA. IN TAMAULIPAS...EXPECTING COASTAL MAXIMA OF 15-25MM. BY  
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...EXPECTING LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS IN  
VERACRUZ...WHERE TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE WILL LEAD TO 15-20MM/DAY  
AND MAXIMA OF 35-70MM. NORTH ACROSS NORTHERN VERACRUZ INTO  
TAMAULIPAS EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. ALSO IN  
MEXICO...DIURNAL CONVECTION ALONG THE SIERRA MADRE OCCIDENTAL AND  
SIERRA MADRE DEL SUR WILL LEAD TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF  
15-25MM.  
 
A TUTT IS RETROGRESSING ACROSS THE GULF OF HONDURAS ON  
TUESDAY...SOUTH OF OAXACA-MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY...AND TO THE SOUTH  
OF MICHOACAN/COLIMA ON THURSDAY. THIS TUTT WILL CONTINUE  
VENTILATING CONVECTION IN NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. LARGEST  
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...WHEN AMOUNTS BETWEEN  
CHIAPAS/TABASCO AND HONDURAS/EL SALVADOR WILL REACH 10-15MM/DAY  
AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM. BY WEDNESDAY-EARLY FRIDAY THIS IS TO  
DECREASE TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM. A TROPICAL WAVE  
WILL APPROACH DURING THE WEEKEND TO LEAD TO AN INCREASE IN  
ACCUMULATIONS.  
 
ANOTHER REGION OF INTEREST IS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...AS A STRONG  
UPPER LOW RETROGRESSES AND INTERACTS WITH A TROPICAL WAVE TO ITS  
SOUTHEAST. BOTH UPPER LOW AND TROPICAL WAVE ARE FORECAST TO  
RETROGRESS IN PHASE THROUGH FRIDAY. IN TERMS OF  
ACCUMULATIONS...LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY ARE  
EXPECTED ACROSS PUERTO RICO INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...WHERE  
AMOUNTS WILL REACH 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. ACROSS  
SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA EXPECTING 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM.  
AS BOTH THE UPPER LOW AND THE TROPICAL WAVE (SEE BELOW) PROPAGATE  
WESTWARD...EXPECTING A DECREASE IN PUERTO RICO/LEEWARD ISLANDS  
WHILE AMOUNTS INCREASE TO THE WEST. BY WEDNESDAY-EARLY THURSDAY  
LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE BAHAMAS...WHERE  
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF  
20-40MM. ACROSS HISPANIOLA EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF  
20-30MM...AS WELL AS PUERTO RICO. BY THURSDAY-FRIDAY...LARGEST  
ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN WESTERN/CENTRAL CUBA AND IN THE  
NORTHERN BAHAMAS...AS THE UPPER TROUGH INTERACTS WITH A SURFACE  
TROUGH AND PRECIPITABLE WATER REMAINS NEAR 50MM. EXPECTING  
ACCUMULATIONS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 25-50MM. IN  
JAMAICA...ACCUMULATIONS ARE TO PEAK ON WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...UNDER  
THE INFLUENCE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE. INITIALLY...EXPECTING AMOUNTS  
OF 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM...INCREASING TO 10-15MM/DAY  
AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM BY WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY. AMOUNTS WILL DECREASE  
AFTER TO 05-10MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 15-20MM BY THURSDAY-FRIDAY.  
 
IN NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA...MOST ACTIVE CONVECTION WILL CLUSTER IN  
COLOMBIA AND WESTERN VENEZUELA UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TROPICAL  
WAVE CROSSING THE REGION...AND THE NEAR EQUATORIAL TROUGH...THAT  
WILL MEANDER ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND NORTHERN VENEZUELA  
THROUGH THE CYCLE. LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ON  
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY WHEN SCATTERED CONVECTION IN MOST OF COLOMBIA  
AND WESTERN VENEZUELA LEADS TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-40MM.  
BY WEDNESDAY-EARLY THURSDAY AMOUNTS WILL DECREASE TO 10-15MM/DAY  
AND MAXIMA OF 20-30MM...TO CLUSTER MOSTLY IN COLOMBIA. BY  
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...EXPECTING SIMILAR AMOUNTS IN WESTERN  
COLOMBIA...WHILE ACROSS THE AMAZON BASINS OF COLOMBIA AND  
VENEZUELA AMOUNTS INCREASE TO 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF 20-35MM.  
LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN NORTHEASTERN VENEZUELA...AND  
THE GUIANAS THROUGH THE CYCLE.  
 
TROPICAL/EASTERLY WAVES INITIALIZED AT 12UTC:  
INITIAL 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 TYPE SOF  
41W 43W 46W 49W 52W 54W 57W 59W TW 15N  
64W 68W 71W 74W 77W 79W 81W 83W TW 19N  
 
A TROPICAL WAVE INITIALIZED AT 41W ARRIVES IN THE BASIN DURING  
LATE THURSDAY-FRIDAY...WHERE IT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE ENHANCEMENT OF  
CONVECTION IN THE GUIANAS.  
 
A TROPICAL WAVE...INITIALIZED AT 64W...IS MOVING ACROSS PUERTO  
RICO AND VENEZUELA ON TUESDAY. THE WAVE WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION IN  
THESE REGIONS TO PRODUCE AMOUNTS OF 15-20MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF  
25-50MM IN PUERTO RICO/VI ON TUESDAY...AND 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA  
OF 20-40MM IN WESTERN VENEZUELA ON TUESDAY. ON  
WEDNESDAY...ENHANCEMENT WILL CONCENTRATE IN HISPANIOLA AND IN  
COLOMBIA. IN BOTH REGIONS EXPECTING 10-15MM/DAY AND MAXIMA OF  
20-30MM. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED IN JAMAICA. BY  
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...THE WAVE WILL LEAD TO MAXIMA OF 15-20MM/DAY IN  
PANAMA AND JAMAICA.  
 
GUY...NMS (BELIZE)  
PECK...MS (JAMAICA)  
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)  

 
 
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