940  
FXCA20 KWBC 131157  
PMDCA  
 
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
756 AM EDT FRI OCT 13 2017  
 
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE VI FROM OCT 13/06  
UTC: MID-LEVEL RIDGE HAS ESTABLISHED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN  
CARIBBEAN. THE RIDGE CENTERS ON A HIGH OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC  
AND EXTENDS AN AXIS EAST INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS/FRENCH ANTILLES  
AND 16N 55W. A TUTT LIES TO ITS EAST ALONG 52W. THE TUTT IS  
INDUCING A WAVE IN THE TRADES THAT EXTENDS ALONG 55W. ALSO...A  
TROPICAL WAVE IS PROPAGATING ALONG 58W...BUT ITS SIGNATURE IN  
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY LIES TO THE SOUTH OF 13N...AS AREAS TO THE  
NORTH ARE BEING MODULATED BY THE TUTT.  
 
MODELS CONTINUE SHOWING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING  
THE NEXT THREE DAYS...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF LIGHT TRADE WIND  
SHOWERS IN LATE NIGHT/MORNING HOURS...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS  
IN SOUTHWESTERN PUERTO RICO DURING THE AFTERNOON. THEY RESOLVE THE  
TROPICAL WAVE CROSSING PUERTO RICO ON SATURDAY EVENING...TO  
ENHANCE AFTERNOON CONVECTION LOCALLY IN WESTERN PUERTO  
RICO...LEADING TO ISOLATED MAXIMA OF 2-2.5 INCHES. THEN...THE  
TUTT-INDUCED WAVE CROSSES DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL  
RESULT IN A CHANGE IN THE TRADES FROM EASTERLIES TO SOUTH  
EASTERLIES. A MOISTURE PLUME TRAILS...WHICH WILL FAVOR A WET SPELL  
FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS IS REFLECTED IN THE  
QPF...WHICH SHOWS AN INCREASE IN ACCUMULATIONS IN THE VIRGIN  
ISLANDS STARTING SUNDAY EVENING. YET...LARGER ACCUMULATIONS ARE  
EXPECTED ON THE MONDAY-TUESDAY TIME FRAME.  
 
IN TERMS OF AMOUNTS...EXPECTING DAILY MAXIMA IN THE ORDER OF 1-2  
INCHES IN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN PUERTO RICO.  
OTHERWISE...LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL PEAK OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY  
MORNING TO PRODUCE MAXIMA NEAR 0.1 TO 0.2 INCHES/DAY.  
 
GUY...NMS (BELIZE)  
PECK...MS (JAMAICA)  
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)  

 
 
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