575  
FXUS01 KWBC 141851  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
250 PM EDT SAT OCT 14 2017  
 
VALID 00Z SUN OCT 15 2017 - 00Z TUE OCT 17 2017  
   
..HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED FOR THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES
 
 
   
..PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE EASTERN U.S. BY MONDAY MORNING
 
 
A DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW OVER THE MIDWEST AND STRONG COLD FRONT  
WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER STORY ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN U.S.  
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO MONDAY. THIS WILL HERALD A PATTERN  
CHANGE FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION GIVEN THE RECENT WARM  
WEATHER COMPARED TO OCTOBER STANDARDS, WITH A PRISTINE AIRMASS  
SETTLING IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND MAKING IT FEEL TRULY FALL-LIKE.  
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NEAR THE SURFACE LOW, HEAVY RAIN AND STRONG  
TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM EASTERN KANSAS TO LOWER  
MICHIGAN THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES  
ARE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR, WHICH INCLUDES THE  
GREATER CHICAGO METRO AREA. FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR  
THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE REPEATED ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.  
 
EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS FLORIDA WILL BRING DEEP MOISTURE AND  
INSTABILITY TO THE PENINSULA. THIS WILL YIELD SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. BY MONDAY, SHOWERS AND  
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CONFINED MOSTLY TO SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE  
KEYS AS THE EAST COAST COLD FRONT PROGRESSES FARTHER SOUTH.  
 
ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S., AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED  
OVER THE WEST COAST THROUGH MONDAY, WITH A SPRAWLING SURFACE HIGH  
ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE NATION. WITH THE EXCEPTION FOR  
SOME SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN WASHINGTON STATE, THIS WILL EQUATE TO  
A VERY DRY WEATHER PATTERN WITH WARM TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEST  
COAST STATES AND COLD FOR THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. GUSTY  
WINDS WILL ALSO AGGRAVATE EXISTING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ACROSS  
CALIFORNIA THIS WEEKEND.  
 
D. HAMRICK  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.

The Nexlab HPC Page Main Text Page