572  
FXUS06 KWBC 221956  
PMDMRD  
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSIONS FOR 6 TO 10 AND 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOKS  
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
300 PM EDT SUN OCT 22 2017  
 
THERE IS NO FORECASTER MESSAGE WRITTEN ON WEEKENDS  
 
NOTES:  
 
AUTOMATED FORECASTS ARE ISSUED ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. OCCASIONALLY MANUAL  
INTERVENTION IS NECESSARY TO ADDRESS QUALITY CONTROL AND CONSISTENCY ISSUES.  
IN THESE CASES, FORECASTS ARE MANUALLY DRAWN BUT A FULL DISCUSSION IS NOT  
ISSUED.  
 
THE NOTATION FOR THE CATEGORICAL FORECAST INDICATED ON THE MAPS IS  
THE SAME AS THAT IN THE TABLES: A-ABOVE N-NEAR NORMAL B-BELOW  
 
THE TEMPERATURE MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING WARMER  
(ORANGE, "A"), COLDER (BLUE, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")  
HISTORICAL AVERAGE VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "F"). LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY  
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS  
ALWAYS < 40%.  
 
THE PRECIPITATION MAP SHOWS REGIONS WITH > 33% CHANCE OF BEING  
WETTER (GREEN, "A"), DRIER (TAN, "B"), OR CLOSE TO (UNSHADED, "N")  
HISTORICAL MEDIAN VALUES FOR THE CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST  
(DASHES, "INCHES"). LABELS ON THE SHADED LINES GIVE THE PROBABILITY  
(> 33%) OF THE MORE LIKELY CATEGORY (B OR A). PROBABILITY OF N IS  
ALWAYS < 40%.  
 
IN THE SOUTHWEST AND OTHER CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRY REGIONS - THERE WILL  
BE A GREATER THAN 33.3% CHANCE OF NO PRECIPITATION AND OCCASIONALLY  
EVEN A NORMAL (I.E. MEDIAN) VALUE OF ZERO - ESPECIALLY DURING THE DRY  
SEASONS. IN SUCH CASES A FORECAST OF NEAR NORMAL IS EFFECTIVELY A  
FORECAST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION.  
 
THE CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER USES 1981-2010 BASE PERIOD MEANS FOR  
TEMPERATURE...PRECIPITATION...AND 500-HPA HEIGHTS AS REFERENCE IN  
THE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS.  
 
ANALOGS TO THE 5 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 3 DAYS AGO (D-3)  
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE  
INCLUDE THE 5 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
19751105 - 19951011 - 19631023 - 19771028 - 19681019  
 
ANALOGS TO THE 7 DAY MEAN OBSERVED PATTERN CENTERED 4 DAYS AGO (D-4)  
FOR THE REGION FROM 20N TO 70N LATITUDE AND 175E TO 60W LONGITUDE  
INCLUDE THE 7 DAY PERIODS CENTERED ON THE FOLLOWING DATES:  
19681018 - 19771028 - 19751104 - 19511002 - 19631022  
 
6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE  
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 28 - NOV 01, 2017  
 
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN  
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A B  
SRN CALIF A B IDAHO N B NEVADA A B  
W MONTANA N B E MONTANA B B WYOMING B B  
UTAH N B ARIZONA A B COLORADO B B  
NEW MEXICO B B N DAKOTA B N S DAKOTA B B  
NEBRASKA B B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B  
N TEXAS B B S TEXAS B B W TEXAS B B  
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B B MISSOURI B B  
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B N WISCONSIN B N  
ILLINOIS B N MISSISSIPPI B N MICHIGAN B A  
INDIANA B N OHIO B A KENTUCKY B A  
TENNESSEE B A ALABAMA B A NEW YORK A A  
VERMONT A A NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A  
MASS A A CONN A A RHODE IS A A  
PENN N A NEW JERSEY A A W VIRGINIA B A  
MARYLAND N A DELAWARE N A VIRGINIA B A  
N CAROLINA B A S CAROLINA B A GEORGIA B A  
FL PNHDL B A FL PENIN B A AK N SLOPE A A  
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A  
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N  
 
 
8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK TABLE  
OUTLOOK FOR OCT 30 - NOV 05, 2017  
 
STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN STATE TEMP PCPN  
WASHINGTON A B OREGON A B NRN CALIF A N  
SRN CALIF A N IDAHO A N NEVADA A N  
W MONTANA A N E MONTANA N N WYOMING A N  
UTAH A N ARIZONA A N COLORADO A B  
NEW MEXICO A B N DAKOTA B B S DAKOTA B B  
NEBRASKA N B KANSAS B B OKLAHOMA B B  
N TEXAS B B S TEXAS N B W TEXAS A B  
MINNESOTA B N IOWA B B MISSOURI B B  
ARKANSAS B B LOUISIANA B B WISCONSIN B B  
ILLINOIS B B MISSISSIPPI B B MICHIGAN B N  
INDIANA B B OHIO B B KENTUCKY B B  
TENNESSEE B B ALABAMA B B NEW YORK N N  
VERMONT A N NEW HAMP A A MAINE A A  
MASS A N CONN A N RHODE IS A N  
PENN N B NEW JERSEY N N W VIRGINIA B B  
MARYLAND N N DELAWARE N N VIRGINIA B B  
N CAROLINA B B S CAROLINA B B GEORGIA B B  
FL PNHDL B B FL PENIN N N AK N SLOPE A A  
AK ALEUTIAN A A AK WESTERN A A AK INT BSN A A  
AK S INT A A AK SO COAST A A AK PNHDL A N  
 
LEGEND  
TEMPS WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL PCPN WITH RESPECT TO MEDIAN  
A - ABOVE N - NEAR NORMAL A - ABOVE N - NEAR MEDIAN  
B - BELOW B - BELOW  
 
THE FORECAST CLASSES REPRESENT AVERAGES FOR EACH STATE. NORMAL  
VALUES - WHICH MAY VARY WIDELY ACROSS SOME STATES - ARE  
AVAILABLE FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.  
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESSAGE FXUS06 - ON AFOS AS  
NFDPMDMRD.  
 

 
 
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