182  
FXUS01 KWBC 230710  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
309 AM EDT MON OCT 23 2017  
 
VALID 12Z MON OCT 23 2017 - 12Z WED OCT 25 2017  
   
..LARGE STORM SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE EASTERN HALF OF THE NATION
 
 
A STRONG AUTUMN STORM SYSTEM IS NOW IN THE PROGRESS OF BECOMING  
BETTER ORGANIZED AS TWO SEPARATE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS CONSOLIDATE  
OVER THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. POTENT SHORTWAVE  
ENERGY ALOFT OVER THE DEEP SOUTH IS FORECAST TO PHASE WITH AN  
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST, AND FUELING  
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE AND OCCLUDED SURFACE LOW THAT WILL  
TRACK FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO ONTARIO AND QUEBEC. A STRONG COLD  
FRONT WILL TRAIL SOUTHWARD FROM THIS LOW, AND BRING A SWATH OF  
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ALONG WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TOWARDS  
THE EAST COAST BY MONDAY NIGHT. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS LIKELY  
TO MATERIALIZE ACROSS SOUTHERN MICHIGAN IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE  
MAIN SURFACE LOW, AND ALSO FOR CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND AS DEEP  
MOISTURE AHEAD OF THE FRONT LEADS TO 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL AMOUNTS.  
SOME INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE GIVEN THE  
ATMOSPHERIC SET-UP.  
 
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL U.S., FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL  
CONTINUE ACROSS PARTS OF CALIFORNIA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH  
VERY DRY CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED. A BIG HEAT WAVE IS  
ALSO IN THE FORECAST FOR SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA, WITH WIDESPREAD 90S  
AND 100S EXPECTED THROUGH TUESDAY WITH EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNINGS IN  
EFFECT. COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE PLAINS  
AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE THAT IS  
LARGE AND IN CHARGE.  
 
D. HAMRICK  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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