345  
FXCA20 KWBC 041103  
PMDCA  
 
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
702 AM EDT SAT NOV 04 2017  
 
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM NOV 04/06  
UTC: BUILDING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO IS TO INDUCE THE  
SOUTHWARD AMPLIFICATION OF A LONG WAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE  
BAHAMAS-CUBA TO NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA EARLY ON SUNDAY MORNING.  
THE TROUGH IS TO DRIFT EAST...NEARING NORTHERN HISPANIOLA EARLY ON  
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS IT PROPAGATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN  
CARIBBEAN...A JET MAXIMA IS TO FLANK THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS  
TROUGH. THIS IS TO GENERALLY FAVOR AN UPPER DIVERGENT  
PATTERN...INTENSIFYING AS IT NEARS THE FORECAST AREA BY MID WEEK.  
THE AMPLIFYING TROUGH IS TO ALSO SUSTAIN THE GRADUAL EROSION OF  
TRADE WINDS CAP ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN THROUGH MIDMORNING  
ON SUNDAY.  
 
AT LOW LEVELS...UNDER INFLUENCE OF A TUTT INDUCED TROUGH...THE  
WINDS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN VEERED TO THE SOUTHEAST EARLY  
THIS MORNING. EARLY ON SUNDAY MORNING THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE  
TO EXPAND ENVELOPING THE FORECAST AREA. THE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS  
WILL SUSTAIN A MOIST ADVECTIVE PATTERN...WITH PWAT CONTENT  
INCREASING TO 1.75 INCHES ON SUNDAY AND 2.0 INCHES ON TUESDAY.  
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IS TO THEN PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE  
WEEK. AS DEEPER MOISTURE POOLS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN  
ISLES THE GFS GDI FORECAST SHOWS RISK OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND  
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY...WITH A HIGHER RISK OF  
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND ONWARD WHEN THE GDI RANGES BETWEEN  
40-45. GLOBAL MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON MODERATE CONVECTION TO  
AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLES ON SUNDAY-MONDAY...WITH  
FOCUS OF THE HEAVY CONVECTION SHIFTING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AS THE  
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.  
 
GUY...NMS (BELIZE)  
PECK...MS (JAMAICA)  
RIVAS...SENAMHI (PERU)  
DAVISON...WPC (USA)  
 

 
 
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