471  
FXUS01 KWBC 170514  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
1213 AM EST FRI NOV 17 2017  
 
VALID 12Z FRI NOV 17 2017 - 12Z SUN NOV 19 2017  
 
...HEAVY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHWEST,  
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, UPPER MIDWEST, AND NORTHEAST...  
 
THE MAIN ATTRACTION THIS PERIOD IS A COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE AREA/SET  
OF FRONTAL WAVES MOVING FROM WYOMING AND THE CENTRAL PLAINS WHICH  
INTENSIFIES AS IT MOVES BY THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES ON AN  
EAST-NORTHEAST HEADING. IN ADVANCE OF THIS SYSTEM, RECORD HIGH  
TEMPERATURES AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS (PER GUIDANCE  
FROM THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER) ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHEAST  
NEW MEXICO AND NORTHWESTERN TEXAS ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF A DRY  
LINE CAUSED BY VERY WARM AND DRY DOWNSLOPED AIR MOVING OFF THE  
SOUTHERN ROCKIES.  
 
COLD AIR ALOFT AND ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC BRINGS IN HEAVY  
RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST  
TODAY. A BUILDING SURFACE HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN IN THE  
CYCLONE'S WAKE COULD LEAD TO GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS ACROSS SOUTHERN  
CALIFORNIA LATE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ONCE THE STRENGTHENING LOW  
TAPS MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT, HEAVY RAIN  
DEVELOPS ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH STREAKS  
EAST-NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM  
BRINGS COOLER AIR IN ITS WAKE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE  
FRIDAY NIGHT, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY LATE SATURDAY, AND INTO THE  
EAST ON SUNDAY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTHERN  
PLAINS.  
 
ON THE HEELS OF THIS SYSTEM, A STRONG DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES  
TOWARDS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WHICH BY SUNDAY MORNING BRINGS HEAVY  
RAIN TO THE OLYMPIC PENINSULA OF WASHINGTON AND THE NORTHERN  
WASHINGTON CASCADES.  
 
ROTH  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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