105  
FXUS01 KWBC 271959  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
259 PM EST MON NOV 27 2017  
 
VALID 00Z TUE NOV 28 2017 - 00Z THU NOV 30 2017  
 
...ABUNDANT WARMTH ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS AND GREAT PLAINS WILL  
LEAD TO MANY RECORD TEMPERATURES TODAY...  
 
...ENHANCED WILDFIRE DANGER OVER THE FOUR CORNERS INTO THE  
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...  
 
...HEAVY RAIN/SNOW ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE OLYMPICS AND WASHINGTON  
CASCADES...  
 
IN ADVANCE OF A PAIR OF SYSTEMS TRACKING THROUGH THE WESTERN  
UNITED STATES, STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER THE CENTER OF THE  
COUNTRY WILL BRING RECORD WARMTH TO MUCH OF THE REGION. AS OF 1 PM  
CST, MUCH OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES/GREAT PLAINS ARE INTO THE 70S  
WHICH ARE NEARING THE DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORDS. IT  
APPEARS LIKELY A FEW DOZEN LOCATIONS WILL SEE THEIR NOVEMBER 27TH  
RECORDS BROKEN TODAY GIVEN THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS. RELATIVE TO  
LATE NOVEMBER CLIMATOLOGY, HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY RANGE FROM 25  
TO 35 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MAXIMUM VALUES CENTERED OVER  
WESTERN KANSAS UP TO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. WHILE A COLD FRONT IS  
FORECAST SWEEP THROUGH THESE LOCATIONS LATER TONIGHT, THE  
INTRUDING AIR MASS WILL BE OF PACIFIC ORIGIN WHICH WILL SOMEWHAT  
LIMIT HOW COLD IT WILL GET THE FOLLOWING DAYS. EXPECTED HIGHS OVER  
THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S WHICH IS  
STILL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.  
 
THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND GUSTY WINDS  
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR  
WILDFIRES ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS EASTWARD INTO THE  
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, THE LATEST  
STORM PREDICTION CENTER FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK SHOWS A CRITICAL RISK  
ACROSS THESE GENERAL AREAS. MUCH OF THIS THREAT SHOULD BE  
ALLEVIATED UPON COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING RISK  
MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER SECTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON TUESDAY.  
 
A POTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST  
ON TUESDAY WILL BRING A BOUT OF HEAVY RAIN/SNOW TO MUCH OF WESTERN  
WASHINGTON EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO AREAS OF NORTHWESTERN OREGON.  
AMPLE LIFT FROM THE TROUGH ITSELF COUPLED WITH STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW  
WILL INVIGORATE AN EXTENSIVE AXIS OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION ACROSS  
THE OLYMPICS EASTWARD INTO THE WASHINGTON CASCADES. THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, EXPECT A BROAD AREA OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OF  
PRECIPITATION OVER THESE RANGES WITH SNOW LIKELY OVER THE HIGHER  
ELEVATIONS. ALSO, EXPECT GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES OVER THESE LOCATIONS  
GIVEN FAIRLY STRONG FLOW AT SUMMIT LEVEL AND ABOVE. WHILE HEADING  
FARTHER EAST, THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY BUT STILL BE A  
FOCUS FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE UPPER  
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  
 
ELSEWHERE, SPLIT FLOW IN THE JET STREAMS WILL ALLOW A CLOSED LOW  
TO PEEL OFF AND SLIDE EASTWARD FROM NORTHERN NEW MEXICO INTO THE  
OZARKS ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. INITIALLY, SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL  
ACCUMULATIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER CENTRAL COLORADO AS THE UPPER LOW  
CROSSES OVERHEAD. EVENTUALLY SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW  
THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE FORECAST OVER AREAS OF EASTERN  
OKLAHOMA/KANSAS AS THE SYSTEM INTERCEPTS MORE APPRECIABLE MOISTURE  
CONTENT. LOOKING FARTHER EAST, PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE  
SOUTHEASTERN STATES COUPLED WITH A FEW MEANDERING DISTURBANCES  
ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THE NEXT  
COUPLE OF DAYS. IT DOES APPEAR THE HEAVIEST AND MOST PERSISTENT  
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE HOWEVER.  
 
RUBIN-OSTER  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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