456  
FXUS01 KWBC 031943  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
242 PM EST WED JAN 03 2018  
 
VALID 00Z THU JAN 04 2018 - 00Z SAT JAN 06 2018  
 
...MAJOR EAST COAST WINTER STORM TO BRING HAZARDOUS WINTER TRAVEL  
CONDITIONS FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH FRIDAY...  
 
...BITTERLY COLD TEMPERATURES AND DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS TO PERSIST  
ACROSS THE EASTERN STATES INTO THE WEEKEND...  
 
A STUBBORN ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE U.S.  
EAST OF THE ROCKIES THROUGH THIS WEEK WITH AFTERNOON HIGH  
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE AS MUCH AS 20 TO 25 DEGREES BELOW  
NORMAL BY THE END OF THE WEEK FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE ENTIRE  
EASTERN SEABOARD. THIS WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR A MAJOR WINTER  
STORM TO IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT AND INTO  
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY SITUATED  
OFF THE FLORIDA COAST WILL RAPIDLY DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD  
THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC ON THURSDAY. FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW  
IS ALREADY OCCURRING ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND THIS WILL  
SPREAD NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  
THE CURRENT FORECAST CALLS FOR ANYWHERE FROM 6 TO 12 INCHES OF  
SNOW ACCUMULATION ALONG THE EAST COAST FROM VIRGINIA BEACH TO  
BOSTON. HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 12 TO 18+ INCHES IS POSSIBLE FOR  
PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND. A LIGHT COATING OF ICE IS ALSO  
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST. IN ADDITION TO HEAVY  
SNOWFALL, A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AROUND THE LOW WILL CAUSE  
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN U.S. LEADING TO DANGEROUSLY  
COLD WIND CHILLS AND BLIZZARD CONDITIONS IN SOME PLACES. SEE THE  
KEY MESSAGES BELOW AS WELL AS THE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL  
NWS OFFICE FOR MORE DETAILS REGARDING THIS STORM.  
 
***KEY MESSAGES: EAST COAST WINTER STORM  
 
1. FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET HAVE TRANSITIONED TO ALL SNOW OVER  
SOUTH CAROLINA. SNOWFALL WILL INCREASE NORTHWARD INTO PORTIONS OF  
THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT.  
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND  
PORTIONS OF COASTAL NEW ENGLAND, AND ALSO NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE  
CHESAPEAKE BAY AND HAMPTON ROADS.  
 
2. CONFIDENCE IN ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL HAS INCREASED FOR PARTS OF  
THE NORTHEAST AS THE SURFACE LOW IS EXPECTED TO TRACK CLOSER TO  
THE COAST AND INTENSIFY RAPIDLY.  
 
3. THIS SYSTEM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE STRONG, DAMAGING WINDS  
POSSIBLY RESULTING IN DOWNED TREES AND/OR POWER OUTAGES.  
 
4. MINOR TO MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING/EROSION IS POSSIBLE DUE TO A  
COMBINATION OF HIGH TIDES AND WAVE ACTION, ESPECIALLY THURSDAY  
AFTERNOON, JANUARY 4.  
 
5. WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM SOUTHEAST GEORGIA NORTHWARD THROUGH  
EASTERN NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED  
IN THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  
 
ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE COUNTRY, WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW FOR LAKE  
EFFECT SNOWS TO CONTINUE DOWNWIND OF THE GREAT LAKES WITH  
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. OUT WEST, RAIN  
WILL CONTINUE MOVING INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA AND EVENTUALLY THE  
PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN  
PACIFIC APPROACHES THE REGION. LOCALLY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL  
IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE FAVORED TERRAIN OF NORTHERN CALIFORNIA.  
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS  
MUCH OF THE WESTERN STATES.  
 
SANTORELLI  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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