805  
FXHW40 KWBC 181331  
PMDHCO  
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD HAWAIIAN OUTLOOKS  
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
830AM EST THU JAN 18 2018  
 
MONTHLY FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FEBRUARY 2018  
 
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) ANOMALIES ARE CURRENTLY AROUND ZERO TO NEGATIVE  
ONE-HALF DEGREE C OVER THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS.  
 
FOR JANUARY 2017 THROUGH THE END OF DECEMBER 2017, RAINFALL TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS  
WERE:  
 
- LIHUE AIRPORT 23.55 INCHES (64 PERCENT OF NORMAL)  
 
- HONOLULU AIRPORT 22.62 INCHES (132 PERCENT OF NORMAL)  
 
- KAHULUI AIRPORT 24.49 INCHES (137 PERCENT OF NORMAL)  
 
- HILO AIRPORT 105.15 INCHES (83 PERCENT OF NORMAL)  
 
THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM (CFS) AND OTHER CLIMATE MODELS RUN AS A PART  
OF THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME) PREDICT NEAR TO SLIGHTLY  
ABOVE NORMAL SSTS AROUND THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN FEBRUARY 2018. CONSIDERING  
RECENT COOLER SSTS NEAR THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS, EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE,  
NEAR, OR BELOW NORMAL MONTHLY MEAN AIR TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED FOR LIHUE,  
HONOLULU, KAHULUI AND HILO IN FEBRUARY 2018. MOST DYNAMICAL TOOLS ALSO FAVOR  
ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HILO, KAHULUI, HONOLULU AND LIHUE DURING  
FEBRUARY 2018, WHICH IS BROADLY CONSISTENT WITH ONGOING ENSO CONDITIONS.  
 
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION  
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV  
HILO EC 71.4 0.5 A40 5.0 8.4 11.1  
KAHULUI EC 71.9 0.6 A40 0.9 1.1 1.8  
HONOLULU EC 73.3 0.5 A40 0.7 1.0 1.4  
LIHUE EC 71.7 0.6 A40 1.3 1.8 4.0  
 
SEASONAL FORECAST DISCUSSION VALID FMA 2018 - FMA 2019  
 
REFER TO THE PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION ON LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS FOR THE CONUS  
AND ALASKA FOR A DISCUSSION OF THE FORECASTS OF EQUATORIAL PACIFIC SSTS, AND  
FOR THE GENERAL BACKGROUND FOR THE SEASONAL FORECAST, INCLUDING DETAILS ON THE  
CURRENT STATE OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND OCEAN. LA NINA CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ARE  
PRESENT ACROSS THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. EQUATORIAL SEA SURFACE  
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC  
OCEAN, AND ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE WESTERN PACIFIC. NEGATIVE SUBSURFACE  
TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN PACIFIC WEAKENED RECENTLY.  
ATMOSPHERIC CONVECTION ANOMALIES WERE POSITIVE NEAR THE INTERNATIONAL DATE  
LINE, WHILE LOW-LEVEL TRADE WINDS WERE STRONGER THAN AVERAGE OVER THE WESTERN  
AND CENTRAL PACIFIC. THE NCEP CFS AND ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS OF THE NMME  
FAVOR THE CONTINUATION OF LA NINA AT LEAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE  
WINTER 2017-18, WITH A TRANSITION TO ENSO-NEUTRAL MOST LIKELY DURING THE  
SPRING. THE OFFICIAL CPC/IRI OUTLOOK FOR ENSO INDICATES AN85 PERCENT OR GREATER  
CHANCE OF LA NINA CONTINUING THROUGH JFM 2018.  
 
ENHANCED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED FOR HAWAII  
FROM FMA 2018 TO JAS 2018 DUE TO PREDICTED ABOVE NORMAL SEA SURFACE  
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE REGION. EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW  
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE INDICATED AT ALL LOCATIONS FOR ASO 2018 AND BEYOND.  
 
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL TOOLS FAVOR ABOVE MEDIAN PRECIPITATION FOR HAWAII  
FROM FMA 2018 TO MAM 2018. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ACROSS THE  
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IN THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST AMONG AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL AND  
STATISTICAL TOOLS (CONSTRUCTED ANALOG AND CANONICAL CORRELATION ANALYSIS) IN  
AMJ AND LONGER LEADS, SO EQUAL CHANCES (EC) FOR ABOVE, NEAR, OR BELOW MEDIAN  
PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED.  
 
HILO  
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION  
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV  
FMA 2018 A60 71.7 0.4 A50 24.6 34.1 45.5  
MAM 2018 A55 72.0 0.5 A40 22.5 28.4 34.0  
AMJ 2018 A55 72.9 0.5 EC 21.4 23.7 29.0  
MJJ 2018 A50 74.0 0.4 EC 20.2 27.5 29.1  
JJA 2018 A45 75.2 0.4 EC 19.4 27.2 31.4  
JAS 2018 A40 76.1 0.4 EC 25.2 28.6 33.4  
ASO 2018 EC 76.4 0.4 EC 26.1 28.8 33.3  
SON 2018 EC 76.2 0.4 EC 24.3 30.2 40.8  
OND 2018 EC 75.5 0.4 EC 28.3 34.5 42.0  
NDJ 2018 EC 74.2 0.4 EC 26.4 36.6 43.0  
DJF 2019 EC 72.8 0.4 EC 19.6 30.2 33.3  
JFM 2019 EC 71.8 0.4 EC 22.0 32.0 44.5  
FMA 2019 EC 71.7 0.4 EC 24.6 34.1 45.5  
\N KAHULUI  
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION  
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV  
FMA 2018 A60 72.3 0.4 A50 3.2 4.1 6.4  
MAM 2018 A55 73.0 0.4 A40 2.5 3.5 4.6  
AMJ 2018 A55 74.3 0.5 EC 1.2 1.6 2.2  
MJJ 2018 A50 76.0 0.5 EC 0.7 1.1 1.8  
JJA 2018 A45 77.7 0.4 EC 0.7 1.1 1.5  
JAS 2018 A40 79.0 0.4 EC 0.8 1.1 1.6  
ASO 2018 EC 79.4 0.4 EC 0.8 1.6 2.5  
SON 2018 EC 79.1 0.4 EC 2.1 3.3 4.8  
OND 2018 EC 77.8 0.4 EC 4.2 5.3 8.1  
NDJ 2018 EC 75.9 0.4 EC 5.2 7.6 9.5  
DJF 2019 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 4.6 6.9 8.7  
JFM 2019 EC 72.5 0.4 EC 4.2 6.2 8.2  
FMA 2019 EC 72.3 0.4 EC 3.2 4.1 6.4  
\N HONOLULU  
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION  
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV  
FMA 2018 A60 73.8 0.4 A50 1.9 3.2 4.7  
MAM 2018 A55 74.8 0.4 A40 1.8 2.6 3.0  
AMJ 2018 A55 76.3 0.4 EC 1.2 1.6 1.8  
MJJ 2018 A50 78.2 0.4 EC 0.8 1.4 1.6  
JJA 2018 A45 79.9 0.4 EC 0.7 0.8 1.3  
JAS 2018 A40 81.3 0.4 EC 1.0 1.4 1.7  
ASO 2018 EC 81.7 0.4 EC 1.6 2.4 3.1  
SON 2018 EC 81.4 0.4 EC 2.5 4.0 5.6  
OND 2018 EC 80.0 0.4 EC 4.4 6.4 8.5  
NDJ 2018 EC 77.7 0.5 EC 3.9 5.6 8.8  
DJF 2019 EC 75.3 0.5 EC 3.7 5.6 8.6  
JFM 2019 EC 73.9 0.4 EC 2.1 4.6 7.8  
FMA 2019 EC 73.8 0.4 EC 1.9 3.2 4.7  
\N LIHUE  
TEMPERATURE PRECIPITATION  
FCST AVE LIM FCST BLW MEDIAN ABV  
FMA 2018 A60 72.1 0.5 A50 5.8 8.4 9.9  
MAM 2018 A55 72.8 0.5 A40 5.3 6.6 8.0  
AMJ 2018 A55 74.2 0.5 EC 4.7 5.5 6.0  
MJJ 2018 A50 76.0 0.5 EC 4.9 5.4 5.9  
JJA 2018 A45 77.7 0.4 EC 4.4 5.3 6.9  
JAS 2018 A40 79.0 0.3 EC 5.3 6.1 7.8  
ASO 2018 EC 79.4 0.3 EC 6.2 7.9 8.4  
SON 2018 EC 79.1 0.3 EC 9.2 10.0 11.2  
OND 2018 EC 77.8 0.3 EC 9.2 11.7 15.6  
NDJ 2018 EC 75.7 0.3 EC 8.6 12.1 16.9  
DJF 2019 EC 73.6 0.4 EC 7.5 8.4 14.0  
JFM 2019 EC 72.2 0.4 EC 6.5 8.8 13.8  
FMA 2019 EC 72.1 0.5 EC 5.8 8.4 9.9  
\NFORECASTER: LUKE HE  
 
ANOMALIES BASED ON 1981-2010 MEANS  
CLARIFICATION: EC INDICATES EQUAL CHANCES THAT THE CLIMATE WILL FALL INTO ANY  
ONE OF THE THREE RANGES OR CATEGORIES WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE SPECIFIED IN THE  
TABLES ABOVE. A FORECAST SPECIFICATION OF EC MEANS THERE IS NO PARTICULAR TILT  
OF THE ODDS TOWARD ABOVE-NORMAL OR BELOW-NORMAL CONDITIONS IN THE OUTLOOK. FOR  
EXAMPLE A40 MEANS A 40% CHANCE THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE  
ABOVE CLASS, B40 MEANS A 40% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR PRECIPITATION WILL  
BE IN THE BELOW CLASS, AND N35 MEANS A 35% PROBABILITY THAT TEMPERATURE OR  
PRECIPITATION WILL BE IN THE NEAR-NORMAL CLASS. WHEN EC IS SPECIFIED, ALL  
CATEGORIES ARE EQUALLY LIKELY.  
NOTE - THESE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR VALID  
PERIODS. WITHIN ANY VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORTER RANGE FORECASTS  
SHOULD BE CONSULTED. ALSO - THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE  
ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT MONTH ON THU FEB 15, 2018.  
 

 
 
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