065  
FXUS01 KWBC 040741  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
241 AM EST SUN FEB 04 2018  
 
VALID 12Z SUN FEB 04 2018 - 12Z TUE FEB 06 2018  
 
...ACCUMULATING SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL  
APPALACHIANS, GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST FOR SUNDAY...  
 
...UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS OVER  
PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND DOWN ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND  
CENTRAL ROCKIES...  
 
...MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE  
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREAT BASIN AND  
SOUTHWEST U.S...  
 
SUFFICIENT COLD AIR IS EXPECTED TO BE IN PLACE TODAY ACROSS THE  
GREAT LAKES, CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND NORTHEAST FOR SOME  
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL AS A STORM SYSTEM EXITING THE MIDWEST  
QUICKLY LIFTS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND PORTIONS OF  
THE NORTHEAST. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER INTERIOR  
SECTIONS OF NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE LOCALLY OVER 6  
INCHES OF NEW SNOWFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. FARTHER SOUTH OVER THE  
MID-ATLANTIC REGION, GENERALLY A COLD RAIN IS EXPECTED, HOWEVER  
THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT COLD AIR IN PLACE ALONG AND EAST OF THE  
SPINE OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS, INCLUDING THE BLUE  
RIDGE, FOR A STRIPE OF FREEZING RAIN. THIS WILL DRIVE CONCERNS FOR  
ACCUMULATING ICE WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR FOR AT LEAST A PERIOD  
OF TIME TODAY BEFORE THE TEMPERATURES WARM UP TO ABOVE FREEZING.  
MEANWHILE, FARTHER DOWN TO THE SOUTH, MORE WIDESPREAD AND HEAVIER  
RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH A FOCUS FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE  
GULF COAST STATES AND INCLUDING INTERIOR AREAS OF THE SOUTHEAST AS  
A SEPARATE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IMPACTS THIS REGION AND DRAWS A  
MORE SUBSTANTIAL AXIS OF MOISTURE NORTH IN OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO.  
 
ALL OF THE UNSETTLED WEATHER IMPACTING THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN  
U.S. TODAY WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH EARLY MONDAY  
AS A COLD FRONT SWEEPS ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THE GULF  
COAST STATES. THIS WILL ALLOW A SURGE OF NOTABLY COLDER AND DRIER  
AIR TO RETURN TO THE REGION, WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY BELOW  
NORMAL AT LEAST ON MONDAY BEFORE THEN MODERATING TO NEAR NORMAL BY  
TUESDAY.  
 
ACROSS THE WEST, THERE WILL BE STILL A PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER  
CONTINUING TODAY THROUGH MONDAY FOR AREAS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST  
AND ALSO EXTENDING DOWN ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AS  
A SERIES OF WEAK PACIFIC IMPULSES IMPACT THE REGION. CONDITIONS  
SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY OUT SOMEWHAT BY TUESDAY, BUT NOT BEFORE  
COASTAL AREAS OF WASHINGTON SEE SOME ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN AND  
MORE CONCERNS FOR RIVER FLOODING. FARTHER INLAND OVER THE HIGHER  
TERRAIN, THE CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL. AREAS OF  
THE WASHINGTON CASCADES, AND ESPECIALLY THE INTERIOR RANGES OF THE  
NORTHERN ROCKIES INCLUDING THE BITTERROOTS, SAWTOOTH AND TETONS  
WILL SEE AS MUCH AS ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW THROUGH MONDAY.  
THE INFLUX OF PACIFIC MOISTURE AND ENERGY WILL ALSO OVERRUN AN  
ARCTIC FRONT BANKED UP ACROSS THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE  
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE FOR HEAVY SNOW TO SPREAD OUT ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS WITH MOST OF THE IMPACT ON CENTRAL AND  
WESTERN MONTANA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF NORTHERN WYOMING. THE  
REMAINDER OF THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST WILL BE GENERALLY VERY MILD  
AND DRY WITH TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND  
PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AS MUCH AS 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  
SOME RECORD WARM HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE POSSIBLE LOCALLY.  
 
AREAS EAST OF THE SPINE OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ROCKIES AND  
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST WILL BE  
SEEING THE OPPOSITE CONDITIONS WHEN IT COMES TO TEMPERATURES AS  
THESE AREAS WILL SEE MULTIPLE REINFORCING SHOTS OF ARCTIC AIR  
SPILLING SOUTH FROM CANADA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WHICH WILL  
DRIVE TEMPERATURES AS MUCH AS 10 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.  
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES HERE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET OUT OF THE SINGLE  
DIGITS AND OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AS MUCH AS 20 DEGREES  
BELOW ZERO FOR SOME AREAS. THESE TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH THE  
WIND WILL RESULT IN DANGEROUSLY COLD WINDCHILL VALUES AS A RESULT.  
 
ORRISON  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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