411  
FXCA20 KWBC 051136  
PMDCA  
 
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
636 AM EST MON FEB 05 2018  
 
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM FEB 02/05  
UTC: CLOSED MID LEVEL HIGH OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDS A  
RIDGE TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TO THE  
WESTERN ATLANTIC. MID LEVEL RIDGE PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST  
THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD...WITH CLOSED HIGH RELOCATING  
ACROSS CUBA TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC EARLY ON SATURDAY. AS THE  
RIDGE HOLDS...IT IS TO SUSTAIN A TRADE WINDS CAP THAT IS TO  
MEANDER BETWEEN 600-750 HPA. THIS IS TO TRAP MOISTURE TO LOW  
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...WITH PWAT CONTENT OF 1.0 TO 1.25 INCHES  
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.  
 
AT LOW LEVELS...REMNANTS OF A TUTT INDUCED/EASTERLY WAVE IS  
STREAMING ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLES-EASTERN CARIBBEAN EARLY THIS  
MORNING. MOISTURE WITH THIS FEATURE SPLITS IN TWO CLOUD  
CLUSTERS...ONE TO THE SOUTH OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN AND ANOTHER  
TO THE WEST PULLING ACROSS PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS MORNING. THE  
LATTER FAVORS LIGHT CONVECTION AND BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD COVER  
AS IT STREAMS ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO THE MONA PASSAGE. THROUGH THE  
MORNING HOURS THE WAVE IS TO MOVE ACROSS THE VIRGIN  
ISLES...REACHING EASTERN PUERTO RICO BEFORE NOONTIME TODAY. IT IS  
TO CONTINUE ACROSS PUERTO RICO TO THE MONA PASSAGE LATER THIS  
EVENING. A TRAILING PLUME OF MOISTURE IS TO THEN STREAM ACROSS THE  
VIRGIN ISLES TO PUERTO RICO EARLY ON TUESDAY MORNING. BUT THIS IS  
TO ONLY FAVOR LIGHT RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN PASSING SHOWERS.  
 
ON ITS WAKE...BRISK EASTERLY TRADES ARE TO THEN PREVAIL THROUGH  
THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH 850 HPA WINDS RANGING BETWEEN 20-30KT.  
THIS IS STRONG ENOUGH TO FAVOR GENERATION OF STREAMERS ACROSS THE  
VIRGIN ISLES...TO PESTER EASTERN PUERTO RICO FROM TIME-TO-TIME.  
ALSO...EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW...GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON THE  
OCCASIONAL CLOUD CLUSTER TO STREAM ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS  
WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF DENSER CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT RAINFALL  
AMOUNTS. MOST ACTIVE IS EXPECTED IN THE VICINITY OF EL YUNQUE. SO  
OVERALL...EXCEPT FOR EASTERLY WAVE EARLY IN THE PERIOD...SEASONAL  
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE END OF THE  
WEEK.  
 
DAVISON/GALVEZ...WPC (USA)  
 

 
 
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