708  
FXUS01 KWBC 060701  
PMDSPD  
 
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
200 AM EST TUE FEB 06 2018  
 
VALID 12Z TUE FEB 06 2018 - 12Z THU FEB 08 2018  
 
...HEAVY RAIN AND A THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING WILL SET UP FOR PARTS  
OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY LATER THIS  
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...  
 
...MORE SNOW AND SOME ICE WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE OHIO  
VALLEY AND THE NORTHEAST AS A NEW STORM SYSTEM IMPACTS THE EASTERN  
U.S BY WEDNESDAY...  
 
...VERY MILD TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE OVER MOST OF THE WESTERN  
U.S. THROUGH THE MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WITH SOME  
RECORD WARMTH POSSIBLE LOCALLY...  
 
THE WEATHER FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN  
ROCKIES WILL TEND TO BE RELATIVELY TRANQUIL TODAY WITH GENERALLY  
LESS RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW, HOWEVER, THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO  
REVERT BACK TO BEING UNSETTLED TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND LATTER PART  
OF THE WEEK AS A NEW STORM SYSTEM DROPS SOUTHEAST AND APPROACHES  
THE REGION FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. THIS WILL ALLOW A NEW SURGE OF  
MOISTURE TO ARRIVE WHICH WILL BRING RAIN TO COASTAL AREAS OF  
WASHINGTON, AND LOCALLY VERY HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN  
ROCKIES. A PARTICULAR EMPHASIS WILL BE ON THE BITTERROOTS WHERE  
NEW SNOWFALL TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED BY THE END OF  
THE WEEK. SOME HEAVY SNOW WILL ALSO BE EXPECTED A LITTLE FARTHER  
EAST OUT ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ESPECIALLY CENTRAL  
AND WESTERN MONTANA TO THE EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS  
PACIFIC MOISTURE OVERRUNS AN ARCTIC FRONTAL ZONE BANKED UP AGAINST  
THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. SNOW TOTALS HERE IN  
EXCESS OF 6 INCHES WILL BE EXPECTED AT LEAST LOCALLY.  
 
THE REMAINDER OF THE WESTERN U.S. THOUGH WILL BE QUITE THE  
OPPOSITE AS HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTING OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL  
KEEP VERY MILD TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER INTACT ACROSS THE  
REGION THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE  
A SOLID 10 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION.  
SOME RECORD WARMTH WILL BE POSSIBLE AND ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY AS  
WARMER AIR POOLS OVER THE GREAT BASIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM  
SYSTEM APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  
 
COLD AND DRY AIR MEANWHILE HAS SETTLED OVER THE OHIO VALLEY,  
MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST AND THERE WILL BE ANOTHER COLD FRONT  
CROSSING THIS REGION TODAY WHICH WILL HELP TO REINFORCE THE COLD  
AIR THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALSO BE IMPORTANT IN  
SETTING THE STAGE FOR THE NEXT WINTER STORM TO IMPACT THIS REGION  
AS A STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY  
LATER TODAY AND THEN LIFTS NORTHEAST UP ACROSS THE TENNESSEE  
VALLEY, CENTRAL MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH  
WEDNESDAY. HEAVY SNOWFALL CAN BE EXPECTED NORTH AND WEST OF THE  
LOW TRACK AND AREAS OF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC REGION AND  
INTERIOR NORTHEAST WILL SEE THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WITH SOME AREAS  
SEEING AS MUCH AS 6 TO 12 INCHES. JUST SOUTH OF THIS AXIS OF HEAVY  
SNOW WILL BE A STRIPE OF FREEZING RAIN WHICH WILL EXTEND FROM THE  
OHIO VALLEY NORTHEAST UP ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. SOME LOCALLY  
SIGNIFICANT ICING IS EXPECTED.  
 
FARTHER SOUTH ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES AND INTO THE SOUTHEAST,  
THE CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IN ASSOCIATION  
WITH THE SAME STORM SYSTEM DRIVING THE WINTER WEATHER HAZARDS  
FARTHER TO THE NORTH. IN FACT, SOME VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS  
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE  
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND TENNESSEE VALLEY AS A STRONG SURGE OF  
MOISTURE LIFTS NORTH FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO AND HELPS TO FOCUS AN  
AXIS OF TRAINING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RUNOFF PROBLEMS AND  
SOME FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE AS A RESULT. GRADUALLY THIS  
HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST AND IMPACTS THE REMAINDER OF  
THE GULF COAST REGION AND THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY.  
 
ORRISON  
 
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT  
WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP  

 
 
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