847  
FXCA20 KWBC 081206  
PMDCA  
 
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
705 AM EST THU FEB 08 2018  
 
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM FEB 08/06  
UTC: AT MID-UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE IS MEANDERING OVER THE CENTRAL  
BAHAMAS WHILE AN EXTENSIVE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE SUBTROPICAL  
NORTH ATLANTIC. THE TROUGH CENTERS ON A LOW NEAR THE AZORES...YET  
EXTENDS A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC  
INTO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. A SUBSIDENCE CAP EXTENDS ACROSS THE  
NORTHERN CARIBBEAN...YET THE TROUGH IS PROVIDING SUFFICIENT  
DESTABILIZATION TO ENHANCE THE VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT TRADE WIND  
SHOWERS IN THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN 18N AND  
25N. AT LOW-LEVELS...TRADE WINDS ARE FAST WITH SPEEDS OF 15-20KT.  
THIS IS LEADING TO RAPIDLY-PROPAGATING POCKETS OF TRADE WIND  
SHOWERS.  
 
MODELS CONTINUE SHOWING THE CURRENT PATTERN HOLDING THROUGH THE  
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT HAZARD FOR THE ISLANDS  
WILL BE THE STRONG WINDS FORECAST TO PEAK DURING THE WEEKEND. A  
TRADE WIND SURGE IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE IN THE ISLANDS ON  
FRIDAY...ARRIVING WITH WIND SPEEDS OF 20-25KT AT 900HPA DURING THE  
DAY ON FRIDAY. THESE ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 30-35KT BY  
SATURDAY MORNING...LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY. DURING  
PERIODS OF ENHANCED VERTICAL MIXING...EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 15-25KT  
CLOSE TO THE SURFACE DURING THE PERIOD.  
 
IN TERMS OF RAINFALL...LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED IN  
EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH ENHANCED TRADE  
WIND CONVERGENCE AS THE FAST TRADES INTERACT WITH OROGRAPHY. A  
TRANSIENT ENHANCEMENT IN PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY  
MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PROPAGATING TROUGH IN THE TRADES AND  
TRAILING MOISTURE PLUME. YET...ACCUMULATIONS ARE TO REMAIN UNDER  
0.25 INCHES/DAY...WITH EXCEPTION OF THE YUNQUE AND PARTS OF  
EASTERN PUERTO RICO WHERE EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 0.5 INCH/DAY PEAKING  
ON FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
GORDON...NMS (BELIZE)  
NIXON...BDM (THE BAHAMAS)  
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)  
 

 
 
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