608  
FXCA20 KWBC 091226  
PMDCA  
 
TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS  
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD  
726 AM EST FRI FEB 09 2018  
 
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI FROM FEB 09/06  
UTC: NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL  
RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN/BAHAMAS...CONVECTION IN THE  
ISLANDS WILL CONTINUE LIMITING TO TRADE WIND SHOWERS. OVER THE  
ATLANTIC...A BROAD MID-UPPER TROUGH IS PROVIDING SUFFICIENT  
DESTABILIZATION TO WEAKEN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND ALLOW FOR  
DEVELOPMENT UP TO 700 HPA. TRADE WINDS ARE STRONG THOUGH...AND  
PERTURBATIONS ARE STREAMING WESTWARD INTO THE CARIBBEAN. WEAK  
EASTERLY WAVES ARE ORGANIZING AND ARE FORECAST TO PROVIDE  
TRANSIENT ENHANCEMENT OF TRADE WIND SHOWERS AS THEY STREAM THROUGH  
THE ISLANDS DURING THE WEEKEND.  
 
THE MAIN HAZARD CONTINUES TO BE A THE STRONG WINDS FORECAST TO  
PEAK DURING THE WEEKEND. THE WIND SURGE IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE IN  
THE ISLANDS ON FRIDAY RESULTING IN AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS OF  
20-25KT AT 900HPA DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 30-35KT  
BY SATURDAY MORNING...LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY MONDAY. A  
SLIGHT DECREASE FOLLOWS ON TUESDAY....WHEN THE WINDS ARE TO BECOME  
EAST-NORTHEASTERLY. DURING PERIODS OF ENHANCED VERTICAL MIXING  
DURING SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...EXPECT WIND GUSTS OF 15-25KT CLOSE TO  
THE SURFACE.  
 
IN TERMS OF RAINFALL...VARIABILITY WILL BE PROVIDED BY THE  
STREAMING WEAK TRADE WIND PERTURBATIONS. LARGEST ACCUMULATIONS ARE  
EXPECTED IN EASTERN PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO IN ASSOCIATION WITH  
ENHANCED TRADE WIND CONVERGENCE AS THE FAST TRADES INTERACT WITH  
OROGRAPHY. ACCUMULATIONS ARE TO REMAIN UNDER 0.25  
INCHES/DAY...WITH EXCEPTION OF THE YUNQUE AND PARTS OF EASTERN  
PUERTO RICO WHERE EXPECTING MAXIMA OF 0.5 INCH/DAY PEAKING ON  
FRIDAY MORNING.  
 
GORDON...NMS (BELIZE)  
NIXON...BDM (THE BAHAMAS)  
GALVEZ...WPC (USA)  
 

 
 
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