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FXUS04 KWBC 300701
QPFPFD
QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
300 AM EDT WED MAY 30 2018
PRELIM DAY 1 QPF DISCUSSION
VALID MAY 30/1200 UTC THRU MAY 31/1200 UTC
REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR
DAY 1
..OVERVIEW
GUIDANCE WAS ALL GENERALLY WELL CLUSTERED WITH QPF OUTPUT FOR
LARGE SCALE SYNOPTIC SYSTEMS IN THE MIDWEST (ABSORBING TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ALBERTO) AND IN THE GREAT BASIN / NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SOMEWHAT MORE TEDIOUS CONVECTIVE FORECASTS WERE SEEN OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHEAST, INCLUDING FLORIDA. WPC QPF
LEANED TOWARD DETAILS IN THE WRF-NMMB, WHICH HAS PERFORMED BETTER
THIS YEAR THAN IN ANY PREVIOUS YEAR, AND SEEMS A BETTER CHOICE
THAN THE OTHER HI-RES OPTIONS MUCH OF THE LAST FEW MONTHS. WE ALSO
USED THE HREF PROBABILITY MATCHED MEAN - WHICH BOOSTS THE SIGNAL
FOR EMBEDDED HEAVIER AMOUNTS. OVERALL THIS APPROACH LED TO AN
INCREASE OF QPF ALONG THE PAST OF T.D. ALBERTO, AND ALSO IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE NEXT MCS EXPECTED TO TOP THE THERMAL RIDGE
OVER OKLAHOMA/KANSAS WEDNESDAY EVENING.
PLEASE SEE ALSO WPC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORIES AND STORM
SUMMARIES FOR ALBERTO.
BURKE
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