927
FXUS01 KWBC 190753
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
352 AM EDT WED APR 19 2023
VALID 12Z WED APR 19 2023 - 12Z FRI APR 21 2023
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
WEDNESDAY AND OVER MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON THURSDAY...
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS, UPPER/MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND UPPER
GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY; THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SNOW OVER THE CASCADES, NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, AND
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY; MODERATE SNOW
OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
THURSDAY...
ON WEDNESDAY, A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAIN TO
GREAT BASIN AND THE SOUTHWEST WILL SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD TO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES ROUGHLY SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY
FRIDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION, MOISTURE WILL FLOW NORTHWARD OVER THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. AS A RESULT, ON
WEDNESDAY, SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF OKLAHOMA TO IOWA AS THE FRONT MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS.
THEREFORE, THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE IS A GREATER RISK OF TWO-INCH OR GREATER HAIL OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
FURTHERMORE, SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AND EXPAND INTO THE NORTHERNMOST PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THE SNOW WILL EXPAND INTO PARTS OF
THE NORTHERN MOST PARTS OF THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/UPPER
GREAT LAKES.
MOREOVER, MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER PARTS OF KANSAS NORTHWARD TO MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS, UPPER/MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH
HEAVY RAIN. MOREOVER, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO THE
GREAT LAKES OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY.
ON THURSDAY, SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
BOUNDARY AS THE FRONT DIPS FARTHER SOUTH INTO TEXAS. THEREFORE,
THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
FROM THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. ONCE AGAIN, THERE IS A
GREATER RISK OF TWO-INCH OR GREATER HAIL OVER PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST
TEXAS, ARKANSAS, AND SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI. THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE SOUTHERN PLAINS FROM
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF
FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS, AND SMALL STREAMS THE
MOST VULNERABLE. IN ADDITION, ON THURSDAY, MODERATE SNOW WILL
DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THE UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
MEANWHILE, ON WEDNESDAY, WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY
WILL CREATE COASTAL RAIN AND HIGHER-ELEVATION SNOW, IN THE
CASCADES, OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE
LIGHT SNOW WILL EXTEND INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION,
NORTHERN ROCKIES, AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH TO
FRIDAY. BY THURSDAY MORNING, THE COASTAL RAIN AND THE
HIGHER-ELEVATION SNOW WILL END OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.
HOWEVER, THE COASTAL RAIN AND HIGHER-ELEVATION SNOW WILL REDEVELOP
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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