830
FXUS01 KWBC 191816
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
215 PM EDT WED APR 19 2023
VALID 00Z THU APR 20 2023 - 00Z SAT APR 22 2023
...THERE IS A ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY; AND A SLIGHT RISK ACROSS
NORTHEAST TEXAS INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, INCL. MUCH OF ARKANSAS ON
THURSDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AT THE
INTERSECTION OF NEBRASKA, IOWA, KANSAS AND MISSOURI WEDNESDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING TO NORTHEAST TEXAS TO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI, INCL.
MUCH OF ARKANSAS ON THURSDAY...
...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL AFFECT MUCH OF MONTANA AND NORTHERN
NORTH DAKOTA TODAY, BEFORE SLIDING EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN
BOARDER OF NORTH DAKOTA/MINNESOTA ON THURSDAY...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONTINUES OVER MUCH OF NEW MEXICO INTO
THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FOR WEDNESDAY, REMAINING ELEVATED TO
CRITICAL ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY...
CURRENT SATELLITE AND RADAR TRENDS DENOTE A SYMMETRIC LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA DRAWING HIGHER MOISTURE NORTH AND WEST
ACROSS MUCH OF MONTANA AND NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA WITH MUCH OF IT
FALLING AS SNOW THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF WEDNESDAY. HIGHEST SNOW
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE LITTLE BELT, BIG SNOWY AND JUDITH
MOUNTAIN RANGES IN CENTRAL MT, AS WELL AS THE FAR NORTHEAST AND
NORTHWEST CORNERS OF MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA, RESPECTIVELY. THIS
LOW WILL SPIN DOWN WOBBLING SLOWLY ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA.
FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST, THERE IS A GROWING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY (WEDNESDAY) INTO THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD
ASSOCIATED WITH A COLD FRONT AND DRY LINE EXTENDING FROM
NEBRASKA/IOWA ACROSS KANSAS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, AS THE
STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY ROLLS OUT OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE
PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THE FAVORABLE ELEMENTS FOR VERY LARGE
HAIL, STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES WILL EXIST AND AROUND
THE FRONTAL ZONE. AS SUCH THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS
ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ALONG THE EASTERN
NEBRASKA/KANSAS BOARDER INTO FAR SOUTHWEST IOWA AND NORTHWEST
MISSOURI WITH A SLIGHT RISK SURROUNDING IT ACROSS MUCH OF IOWA AS
WELL AS EXTENDING ALONG THE DRY LINE ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS TO THE
RED RIVER. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HAVE HIGHER
RAIN-RATES AND POSE THE POTENTIAL FOR INCIDENTS OF FLASH FLOODING,
WITH BEST POTENTIAL/COVERAGE NEAR THE
NEBRASKA/IOWA/MISSOURI/KANSAS QUAD-STATE REGION; AS HIGHLIGHTED BY
THE UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BY THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. MORE ISOLATED
INCIDENTS MAY EXTEND INTO IOWA, SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN
WHERE GROUND CONDITIONS ARE A BIT MORE SATURATED GIVEN RECENT SNOW
MELT AND SWOLLEN RIVERS/STREAMS.
BEHIND THE DRYLINE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, STRONG WINDS
AND DRY/HOT WEATHER CONTINUE TO POSE A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK
AS FORECAST BY THE SPC, ACROSS MUCH OF NEW MEXICO AND THE
TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES AND ADJACENT REGIONS OF COLORADO AND
SOUTHWEST KANSAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA. RED FLAG WARNINGS ARE
POSTED FOR MUCH OF THIS AREA, ANY FIRES COULD RAPIDLY SPREAD GIVEN
THIS DRY HIGH WIND ENVIRONMENT. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING, WINDS WILL BE WEAKER ON THURSDAY; HOWEVER, DRY
GROUNDS AND SUFFICIENT WINDS WILL KEEP ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE
DANGER IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF NEW MEXICO FOR THURSDAY AS WELL.
BY THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON, THE ENHANCED MOISTURE AND
LIFT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. THIS LOW WILL REACH THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY AND INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA AND MINNESOTA, WHILE THE MODEST RAINFALL
OVER THE SATURATED GROUNDS OF WISCONSIN, NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
EASTERN IOWA WILL REMAIN UNDER THE THREAT OF ISOLATED FLASH
FLOODING RISK AS NOTED BY A BROAD MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL FROM WPC. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES, UNSTABLE AIR WILL ONCE
AGAIN LIE ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT HAS ADVANCED TOWARD
THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BACK INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA/CENTRAL
TEXAS. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP WITH HIGH
POTENTIAL OF EXCESSIVE RAIN-RATES AND SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
BOTH WPC AND SPC HAVE ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR MUCH OF A SIMILAR
AREA ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS, ARKANSAS, TO
THE TRI-RIVERS AREA OF SOUTHEAST MO/FAR W KENTUCKY. SEVERE WINDS,
HAIL, ISOLATED TORNADOES AND SCATTERED INCIDENTS OF FLASH FLOODING
ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. SIMILARLY ON FRIDAY INTO THE EVENING, SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL SHIFT INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND UPPER
TEXAS COAST, WITH BOTH WPC AND SPC HAVING A SLIGHT RISK OF
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOKS POSTED FOR DAY 3.
ELSEWHERE, VERY WARM CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
& MID-ATLANTIC TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. DRY GROUND CONDITIONS AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES HAVE RESULTED IN A RED FLAG WARNING BEING
POSTED FOR ALL OF NEW JERSEY TODAY. WHILE TEMPERATURES FURTHER
INCREASE ON THURSDAY WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC, IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY HIGHER
MOISTURE. THIS WILL REDUCE THE THREAT FOR FIRES, BUT INCREASE THE
RISK FOR HEAT RELATED ISSUES, SUCH AS HEAT EXHAUSTION OR
DEHYDRATION. BY FRIDAY, A FEW DAILY RECORDS ARE AT RISK OF BEING
BROKEN AS TEMPS REMAIN 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL AND MAY EVEN
PEAK UP INTO THE LOW 90S.
FOR THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, A FAST MOVING, STRONG BUT WEAKENING LOW
WILL TRACK NORTH OF VANCOUVER ISLAND LATE ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THIS WILL BRING STRONGER WINDS AND A GOOD CHANCE OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL WITH SOME SNOWS ALONG THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF
THE CASCADE RANGE OF WASHINGTON AND OREGON ON FRIDAY.
GALLINA
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