167
FXUS01 KWBC 200757
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
357 AM EDT THU APR 20 2023
VALID 12Z THU APR 20 2023 - 12Z SAT APR 22 2023
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF
THE MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY...
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OVER PARTS OF THE
MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, TENNESSEE VALLEY, AND THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
...MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON THURSDAY; SNOW OVER THE CASCADES, NORTHERN
INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...
ON THURSDAY, A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TO SOUTHERN PLAINS THEN WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHWEST, WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EASTWARD TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ROUGHLY SOUTHWARD TO THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING. IN ADDITION, MOISTURE WILL
FLOW NORTHWARD OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS, MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND THE GREAT LAKES.
AS A RESULT, ON THURSDAY, SHOWERS AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AS THE FRONT MOVES ONTO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THEREFORE, THE SPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE/LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE HAZARDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FREQUENT LIGHTNING, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS, HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES. ADDITIONALLY,
THERE IS A GREATER RISK OF TWO-INCH OR GREATER HAIL OVER PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
MOREOVER, HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS
OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OVER PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MIDDLE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL
CREATE LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, AFFECTING AREAS THAT
EXPERIENCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH HEAVY RAIN. ADDITIONALLY, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES ON
THURSDAY.
FURTHERMORE, ON THURSDAY, MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP OVER
PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY MORNING. ON FRIDAY, THE SNOW WILL BECOME
MODERATE OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.
MOREOVER, ON FRIDAY, THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DECREASES
SLIGHTLY TO A MARGINAL THREAT ALONG THE WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF
COAST. HOWEVER, HEAVY RAIN WILL ACCOMPANY THE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE VALLEY TO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST.
THEREFORE, THE WPC HAS ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
OVER PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE/LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS FROM FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED HEAVY RAIN WILL CREATE
MAINLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING, WITH URBAN AREAS, ROADS,
AND SMALL STREAMS THE MOST VULNERABLE.
IN THE MEANTIME, ON FRIDAY, RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY, MOVING INTO THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AND INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY.
MEANWHILE, ON THURSDAY, ONSHORE FLOW AND UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY WILL
CREATE COASTAL RAIN AND HIGHER-ELEVATION SNOW, IN THE CASCADES,
OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE LIGHT SNOW
WILL EXTEND INTO THE NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION, NORTHERN
ROCKIES, AND PARTS OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES THROUGH TO SATURDAY.
ELSEWHERE, ONSHORE FLOW WILL CREATE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
PARTS OF FLORIDA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
ZIEGENFELDER
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
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