498
FXUS05 KWBC 201925
PMD90D
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR LONG-LEAD SEASONAL OUTLOOKS
NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
830 AM EDT THU APR 20 2023
SUMMARY OF THE OUTLOOK FOR NON-TECHNICAL USERS
ENSO (EL NIñO SOUTHERN OSCILLATION) NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE PRESENT, AS
REPRESENTED IN CURRENT OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC OBSERVATIONS. ENSO-NEUTRAL
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE SPRING,
FOLLOWED BY A 62% CHANCE OF EL NIñO DEVELOPING DURING MAY-JULY 2023, AND A
GREATER THAN 80% CHANCE OF EL NIñO BY THE FALL. THEREFORE, AN EL NIñO WATCH IS
NOW IN EFFECT.
THE MAY-JUNE-JULY (MJJ) 2023 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONTIGUOUS UNITED STATES (CONUS), THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES, PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, AND ALL OF THE STATE OF ALASKA. THE LARGEST
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT) ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND ALONG THE EAST AND GULF COASTS.
THE MJJ 2023 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK DEPICTS ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, THE
SOUTHEAST, THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
AND NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF ALASKA. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MORE
LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, THE NORTHERN ROCKIES,
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. EQUAL CHANCES
(EC) ARE FORECAST FOR AREAS WHERE PROBABILITIES FOR EACH CATEGORY OF SEASONAL
MEAN TEMPERATURES AND SEASONAL ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE SIMILAR TO CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES.
BASIS AND SUMMARY OF THE CURRENT LONG-LEAD OUTLOOKS
NOTE: FOR GRAPHICAL DISPLAYS OF THE FORECAST TOOLS DISCUSSED BELOW SEE:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/90DAY/TOOLS/BRIEFING
CURRENT ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS
THE COUPLED OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC OBSERVATIONS REFLECT ENSO-NEUTRAL
CONDITIONS. DURING MARCH 2023, ABOVE-AVERAGE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS)
BECAME MORE PROMINENT IN THE WESTERN AND FAR EASTERN EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN.
THE LATEST WEEKLY NIñO-3.4 INDEX VALUE WAS +0.1°C, BUT THE NIñO1+2 INDEX VALUE
WAS +2.7°C, INDICATING SIGNIFICANT WARMING ALONG THE SOUTH AMERICAN COAST.
AREA-AVERAGED SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURES ALSO INCREASED OVER THE PAST MONTH,
REFLECTING THE DOMINANCE OF ABOVE-AVERAGE SUBSURFACE TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. FOR THE MONTHLY AVERAGE, UPPER-LEVEL AND LOW-LEVEL
WINDS WERE NEAR NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE EQUATORIAL PACIFIC OCEAN. HOWEVER,
LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY WIND ANOMALIES WERE EVIDENT IN THE FIRST HALF OF MARCH
ASSOCIATED WITH SUB-SEASONAL ACTIVITY. SUPPRESSED CONVECTION WAS EVIDENT OVER
THE CENTRAL TROPICAL PACIFIC AND OVER PARTS OF INDONESIA. WHILE THE WARMING
NEAR COASTAL SOUTH AMERICA WAS STRIKING, THE BASIN-WIDE COUPLED
OCEAN-ATMOSPHERE SYSTEM WAS CONSISTENT WITH ENSO-NEUTRAL.
AN ACTIVE MADDEN JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO) REMAINS APPARENT, WITH THE ENHANCED
CONVECTIVE PHASE NOW CROSSING THE PACIFIC. THE MJO HAS DISRUPTED THE TRADE WIND
REGIME ACROSS THE PACIFIC, WHILE DOWNWELLING OCEANIC KELVIN WAVE ACTIVITY HAS
HELPED TRANSPORT ANOMALOUSLY WARM WATERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE BASIN. OTHER MODES
APPEAR TO BE DISRUPTING THE INTRASEASONAL SIGNAL, INCLUDING KELVIN WAVE
ACTIVITY CROSSING THE WESTERN HEMISPHERE AHEAD OF THE MJO ENHANCED CONVECTIVE
ENVELOPE, ROSSBY WAVE ACTIVITY OVER THE MARITIME CONTINENT, AND A STUBBORN
SUPPRESSED SIGNAL NEAR THE DATE LINE. DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS FROM THE GLOBAL
ENSEMBLE FORECAST SYSTEM (GEFS) AND EUROPEAN CENTRE FOR MEDIUM-RANGE WEATHER
FORECASTS (ECMWF) MODELS DEPICT CONTINUED MJO ACTIVITY THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK,
WITH SOME INDICATION OF A DISRUPTION OF THE SIGNAL IN WEEK 2 GIVEN INTERFERENCE
FROM ROSSBY AND KELVIN WAVE ACTIVITY. SOME ENSEMBLE MEMBERS, PARTICULARLY FROM
GEFS, FAVOR CONTINUATION OF THE MJO INTO EARLY MAY THOUGH THE PHASE SPEED AND
AMPLITUDE OF THE MJO IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME.
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF SST FORECASTS
THE MOST RECENT INSTITUTE RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR CLIMATE AND SOCIETY (IRI)
PLUME FAVORS A TRANSITION TO EL NIñO, BEGINNING JUNE-AUGUST 2023 AND PERSISTING
INTO THE WINTER. WHILE THE LOWER ACCURACY OF FORECASTS DURING THE SPRING CAN
RESULT IN SURPRISES, THE RECENT OCEANIC KELVIN WAVE PLUS RECURRING WESTERLY
WIND ANOMALIES ARE ANTICIPATED TO FURTHER WARM THE TROPICAL PACIFIC OCEAN. THE
COASTAL WARMING IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC MAY FORESHADOW CHANGES ACROSS THE
PACIFIC BASIN. THEREFORE, AN EL NIñO WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED, AND THE RANGE OF
POSSIBILITIES TOWARD THE END OF THE YEAR INCLUDES A STRONG EL NIñO (4 IN 10
CHANCE OF NIñO-3.4 ≥ 1.5°C) TO NO EL NIñO (1 IN 10 CHANCE). IN SUMMARY,
ENSO-NEUTRAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE NORTHERN
HEMISPHERE SPRING, FOLLOWED BY A 62% CHANCE OF EL NIñO DEVELOPING DURING
MAY-JULY 2023.
PROGNOSTIC TOOLS USED FOR U.S. TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOKS
DYNAMICAL MODEL FORECASTS FROM THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE (NMME)
AND COPERNICUS (C3S) ENSEMBLE SYSTEMS AND THE CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM VERSION 2
(CFSV2) ARE USED EXTENSIVELY FOR THE FIRST SIX LEADS WHEN THEY ARE AVAILABLE,
AS WAS THE OBJECTIVE, HISTORICAL SKILL WEIGHTED CONSOLIDATION, THAT COMBINES
BOTH DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL FORECAST TOOLS. THE CALIBRATION, BRIDGING AND
MERGING (CBAM) TOOL ANCHORED TO THE NMME FORECASTS AND "BRIDGED" TO THE NIñO3.4
INDEX IS ALSO SIGNIFICANTLY UTILIZED. CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT AND SNOW
PACK ARE ABNORMALLY HIGH FOR MUCH OF THE WESTERN CONUS. CONVERSELY, SOILS ARE
ABNORMALLY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. FARTHER TO
THE NORTH, ARCTIC SEA ICE EXTENT IS SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL
AVERAGES. ADDITIONALLY, THE ENSO FORECAST DEPICTS PROBABILITIES OF EL NIñO THAT
ARE SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL PROBABILITIES LATER THIS YEAR.
CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS, SNOW PACK, SEA ICE EXTENT, EXTRATROPICAL SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), AND THE ANTICIPATED EL NIñO SIGNAL PLAYED A ROLE
IN THE CONSTRUCTION OF THESE OUTLOOKS. AT LATER LEADS, DECADAL TRENDS IN
TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION WERE INCREASINGLY RELIED UPON IN CREATING THE
SEASONAL OUTLOOKS.
PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION OF OUTLOOKS - MJJ 2023 TO MJJ 2024
TEMPERATURE
THE MJJ 2023 TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK FAVORS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS, THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS, THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES, PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST, AND ALL OF
THE STATE OF ALASKA. A SIGNIFICANT REDUCTION IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE
PROBABILITIES ARE EVIDENT RELATIVE TO LAST MONTH’S OUTLOOK ACROSS MUCH OF THE
WEST DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL SNOWPACK AND SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS. CONVERSELY,
RELATIVELY HIGH PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES (GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT) ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS SOIL MOISTURE
CONDITIONS ARE ABNORMALLY DRY. ELEVATED SSTS ALONG WITH RECENT TRENDS LEADS TO
LIKELY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST AND GULF COASTS, WHERE ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURE PROBABILITIES EXCEED 50 PERCENT. THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE
COOLING TREND IN THE FORECAST CONSOLIDATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MISSISSIPPI AND
TENNESSEE VALLEYS RELATIVE TO LAST MONTH. AS A RESULT, ENHANCED PROBABILITIES
OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE RELATIVELY MODEST ACROSS THESE REGIONS. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORED ACROSS ALASKA, PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTH
SLOPE, THE SOUTHWESTERN COASTAL MAINLAND, THE ALASKA PENINSULA, AND THE
ALUETIANS DUE, IN PART, TO BELOW NORMAL SEA ICE EXTENT AND ABOVE NORMAL SSTS.
CONVERSELY, ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR INTERIOR
MAINLAND ALASKA ARE MODEST, AS AN ABNORMALLY HIGH SNOWPACK WILL LIKELY DELAY
THE SPRING WARMUP ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. MODESTLY ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO INDICATED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS DUE TO
RECENT TRENDS AND SUPPORT FROM THE NMME AND C3S MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLES.
FOR THE SUMMER SEASONS (JUNE-JULY-AUGUST, JJA THROUGH JULY-AUGUST-SEPTEMBER,
JAS), THE COMBINED SIGNALS FROM DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, SOIL MOISTURE, ENSO
COMPOSITES, AND TREND FAVOR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR WESTERN, EASTERN, AND
SOUTHERN CONUS AS WELL AS MUCH OF MAINLAND ALASKA. THE STRONGEST WARM SIGNALS
ARE OVER MUCH OF THE EAST AND GULF COASTS AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND
EXPANDING ACROSS THE WEST AS THE SUMMER PROGRESSES. DYNAMICAL MODELS, TREND,
SOLID MOISTURE TOOLS AND ENSO COMPOSITES ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT IN THESE
REGIONS AND PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXCEED 50 PERCENT FOR
ONE OR MORE OF THE CORE SUMMER MONTHS ACROSS THESE REGIONS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE
IS REDUCED OVER MUCH OF THE WEST EARLY IN THE SUMMER AS THE CURRENT HIGH
SNOWPACK AND SOIL MOISTURE MAY DELAY THE SUMMER WARMUP. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY FAVORED ACROSS MOST OF ALASKA WITH CONFIDENCE
INCREASING ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE AS THE SUMMER PROGRESSES. AS WE
PROGRESS TOWARD THE FALL AND WINTER MONTHS (AUGUST-SEPTEMBER-OCTOBER, ASO 2023
THROUGH JANUARY-FEBRUARY-MARCH, JFM 2024), EL NIñO IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
OF A FACTOR AND THE PATTERN BEGINS TO INCREASINGLY REFLECT EL NIñO CONDITIONS
DURING THE COLD MONTHS. AS A RESULT, ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES INDICATED FOR THE SOUTHERN CONUS LATE SUMMER/EARLY FALL ARE
REDUCED BY THE WINTER. CONVERSELY, CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER BY THE WINTER MONTHS. WARMER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY FAVORED FOR ALASKA DURING THE FALL AND WINTER MONTHS.
HOWEVER, PROBABILITIES ARE GENERALLY MODEST ACROSS THE STATE DUE TO WIDE
VARIATION OF SOLUTIONS DERIVED FROM NATURAL ENSO-BASED ANALOGS. AS WE ENTER
NEXT SPRING (FEBRUARY-MARCH-APRIL, FMA THROUGH MJJ 2024) THE OUTLOOK
INCREASINGLY RELIES ON RECENT TRENDS AND GENERALLY FAVORS A TRANSITION TO A
WARM PATTERN ACROSS THE WESTERN, EASTERN, AND SOUTHERN CONUS AND FOR MUCH OF
ALASKA.
PRECIPITATION
THE MJJ 2023 PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK DEPICTS ENHANCED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ACROSS THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS, THE
SOUTHEAST, THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION, THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY,
AND NORTHERN AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF ALASKA. BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS MORE
LIKELY FOR THE SOUTHWEST AND THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, THE NORTHERN ROCKIES,
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, AND PARTS OF THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE COMBINATION
OF ELEVATED SNOWPACK AND HIGH SOIL MOISTURE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST COUPLED
WITH BELOW NORMAL SSTS CURRENTLY OBSERVED IN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA AND THE
PACIFIC OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA WOULD FAVOR A
SLOWER EVOLUTION OF MONSOONAL CIRCULATION. THEREFORE, ELEVATED CHANCES OF BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHWEST. THE AREA OF INCREASED
CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ALSO EXTENDS EASTWARD TO MUCH OF THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS, WHERE BELOW NORMAL SOIL MOISTURE CONTENT IS CURRENTLY
BEING OBSERVED. CONVERSELY, THE FORECAST CONSOLIDATION SUPPORTS ELEVATED
PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN CONUS.
THERE HAS BEEN A NOTICEABLE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE WET SIGNAL THIS MONTH,
RESULTING IN AN EXPANSION OF ENHANCED ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION PROBABILITIES
WESTWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. THIS
WESTWARD EXPANSION WOULD BE CONSISTENT WITH A SLOWER MONSOONAL CIRCULATION EVOLUTION,
AS THE PRECIPITATION PATTERN ACROSS THE PLAINS TENDS TO BE ANTICORRELATED WITH THE
SOUTHWEST MONSOON REGION THIS TIME OF YEAR. ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO
FAVORED FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ALASKA, PARTICULARLY FOR THE NORTH SLOPE, AS
LOWER THAN NORMAL SEA ICE EXTENT MAY ENHANCE PRECIPITATION CHANCES. CONVERSELY,
BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS, DUE TO RECENT
TRENDS AND ENSO BASED STATISTICAL GUIDANCE.
DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS (JJA THROUGH JAS), A PERPETUATION OF BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION IS FAVORED FOR THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE CORE MONSOON MONTHS.
CONVERSELY, THE NOTICEABLE WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE WET SIGNAL SEEN IN THE SPRING
CONTINUES INTO THE SUMMER, WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CONUS TO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE WET SIGNAL DEPICTED IN THE FORECAST
CONSOLIDATION ALSO RESULTED IN A REDUCTION OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FOR THE SOUTHEAST, PARTICULARLY LATER IN THE SUMMER. STATISTICAL AND
DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY FAVORS INCREASED PROBABILITIES OF ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN ALASKA THROUGH THE SUMMER.
INCREASED CHANCES OF BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE GENERALLY INDICATED FOR THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, CONSISTENT WITH RECENT TRENDS. AS
WE ENTER THE FALL AND WINTER MONTHS, THE PATTERN BEGINS TO INCREASINGLY REFLECT
AN EL NIñO SIGNATURE. INCREASED PROBABILITIES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
DEPICTED ACROSS THE OHIO AND MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS DURING LATE SUMMER AND EARLY
FALL TRANSITIONS TO THE EAST AND GULF COASTS DURING THE WINTER MONTHS,
CONSISTENT WITH EL NIñO. CONVERSELY, AN INCREASINGLY DRY SIGNAL IS EVIDENT
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS BY THE WINTER WITH PROBABILITIES OF BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING 40 PERCENT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FROM
NOVEMBER-DECEMBER-JANUARY (NDJ) 2023-24 THROUGH JFM 2024. A TILT TOWARD BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS ALSO INDICATED FOR THE GREAT LAKES REGION WESTWARD
TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE COLD MONTHS, CONSISTENT WITH EL NIñO.
ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS GENERALLY FAVORED FOR NORTHERN ALASKA, AND TO A
LESSER DEGREE, WESTERN ALASKA DURING THE FALL AND WINTER MONTHS. THE STRONGEST
WET SIGNAL EXISTS FOR THE NORTH SLOPE DUE TO RECENT TRENDS. AS WE ENTER NEXT
SPRING, THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST INCREASINGLY RELIES ON TRENDS. THUS,
INCREASED CHANCES OF ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ARE INDICATED FOR MUCH OF THE
OHIO, TENNESSEE, AND MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AS WELL AS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHEAST FROM FMA 2024 THROUGH MJJ 2024. LATER IN THE SPRING AND INTO THE
SUMMER (FMA - MJJ 2024) TRENDS BECOME INCREASINGLY DRY FOR THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND A TILT TOWARD BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION IS INDICATED. CONFIDENCE DECREASES
FOR ALASKA AS WE APPROACH THE LATER LEADS WITH ONLY A SLIGHT TILT TOWARD ABOVE
NORMAL PRECIPITATION INDICATED FOR THE NORTH SLOPE BY MJJ 2024 AND EQUAL
CHANCES INDICATED ACROSS THE ENTIRE STATE BY APRIL-MAY-JUNE (AMJ) 2024.
FORECASTER: SCOTT HANDEL
THE CLIMATIC NORMALS ARE BASED ON CONDITIONS BETWEEN 1991 AND 2020, FOLLOWING
THE WORLD METEROLOGICAL ORGANIZATION CONVENTION OF USING THE MOST RECENT 3
COMPLETE DECADES AS THE CLIMATIC REFERENCE PERIOD. THE PROBABILITY ANOMALIES
FOR TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION BASED ON THESE NEW NORMALS BETTER REPRESENT
SHORTER TERM CLIMATIC ANOMALIES THAN THE FORECASTS BASED ON OLDER NORMALS.
FOR A DESCRIPTION OF OF THE STANDARD FORECAST TOOLS - THEIR SKILL- AND THE
FORECAST FORMAT PLEASE SEE OUR WEB PAGE AT
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/PREDICTIONS/LONG_RANGE/TOOLS.HTML
(USE LOWER CASE LETTERS)
INFORMATION ON THE FORMATION OF SKILL OF THE CAS FORECASTS MAY BE FOUND AT:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/SOILMST_MONITORING/US/OUTLOOK/OUTLOOK.SHTM
L
(USE LOWERCASE LETTERS)
NOTES - THESE CLIMATE OUTLOOKS ARE INTENDED FOR USE PRIOR TO THE START OF THEIR
VALID PERIOD. WITHIN ANY GIVEN VALID PERIOD OBSERVATIONS AND SHORT AND MEDIUM
RANGE FORECASTS SHOULD BE CONSULTED.
THIS SET OF OUTLOOKS WILL BE SUPERSEDED BY THE ISSUANCE OF THE NEW SET NEXT
MONTH ON MAY 18 2023
1991-2020 BASE PERIOD MEANS WERE IMPLEMENTED EFFECTIVE WITH THE MAY 20, 2021
FORECAST RELEASE.
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