991
FXUS01 KWBC 211913
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
313 PM EDT FRI APR 21 2023
VALID 00Z SAT APR 22 2023 - 00Z MON APR 24 2023
...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE EASTWARD ALONG A
COLD FRONT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS TODAY TO THE EAST
COAST THIS WEEKEND WITH SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING
POSSIBLE...
...DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE TO DELIVER WIDESPREAD SWATH OF ABNORMALLY
CHILLY TEMPERATURES FROM THE NATION'S HEARTLAND TODAY AND SATURDAY
TO THE EAST COAST BY SUNDAY...
...MOUNTAIN SNOW AND COASTAL/VALLEY SHOWERS FOR THE
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PACIFIC NORTHWEST; UNSETTLED AND
STORMY SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND FOR SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS...
A FRONTAL SYSTEM TRACKING EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE
U.S. WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR PRODUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM AS FAR SOUTH AS SOUTH TEXAS AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
TO THE OHIO VALLEY AND EASTERN GREAT LAKES. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER (SPC) HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY, AS WELL AS A PAIR OF MARGINAL RISKS IN THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER (WPC) ALSO HAS AN EXPANSIVE MARGINAL RISK AREA
THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI, TENNESSEE, AND OHIO VALLEYS. AS THE
FRONT MARCHES EAST ON SATURDAY, THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE PRIMED TO
PRODUCE MORE SEVERE STORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC. SPC
ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FROM THE COASTAL CAROLINAS
ON NORTH TO THE WASHINGTON D.C.-BALTIMORE METRO AREA. THE
FOOTPRINT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPAN FROM CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE
NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC WITH STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL,
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND TORNADOES. BY SUNDAY, THE COLD FRONT WILL
HAVE PASSED THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST, BUT NEW
ENGLAND WILL STILL BE DEALING WITH RAIN AS A NEW AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FORMS ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST. AMPLE
MOISTURE AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES HAS PROMPTED WPC TO
ISSUE A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND FOR SUNDAY.
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT SWEEPING THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S
THIS WEEKEND WILL ALSO BE INTRODUCING AN EXCEPTIONALLY COLD
AIR-MASS, IN THE FORM OF CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE, THROUGH THE
NATION'S HEARTLAND THIS AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO
DROP BELOW FREEZING IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY
MORNING, RESULTING IN THE ISSUANCE OF FREEZE WARNINGS AND WATCHES
FROM EASTERN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA TO PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. THIS PUSH OF ANOMALOUSLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE THEIR WAY THROUGH THE OHIO AND TENNESSEE
VALLEYS TONIGHT, THEN AS FAR EAST AS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
SOUTHEAST BY SATURDAY EVENING. NEW ENGLAND WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF ONSHORE FLOW, KEEPING COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LOCKED IN OVER MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE
WEEKEND. SUNDAY HAS THE BEST ODDS OF THE TWO DAYS THIS WEEKEND TO
PRODUCE RECORD COLD DAILY MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. RECORD
COLD MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, WITH RECORD COLD DAILY MAXIMUM TEMPS POSSIBLE IN THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS.
ELSEWHERE, THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND BOTH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES WILL CONTEND WITH OCCASIONAL COASTAL/VALLEY SHOWERS AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST ROUND OF PRECIPITATION THIS
EVENING AND INTO SATURDAY IS DUE TO AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
PASSING THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
SETTING UP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
THE NEXT ROUND OF WET WEATHER ARRIVES SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AS A STORM SYSTEM IN THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC
USHERS IN MORE PRECIPITATION, AS WELL AS COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. FARTHER SOUTH, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE AND A BROAD TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE SOUTHWEST
WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT LIFT, ALONG WITH EASTERLY FLOW PROVIDING A
SOURCE OF GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE, TO PRODUCE WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN TEXAS. WPC
AND SPC HAVE ISSUED MARGINAL RISKS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS FOR BOTH
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, AS STORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
BOTH LOCALLY EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES AND SEVERE WEATHER.
MULLINAX
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