848
FXUS01 KWBC 251916
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
315 PM EDT TUE APR 25 2023
VALID 00Z WED APR 26 2023 - 00Z FRI APR 28 2023
...HEAVY RAIN, ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...HEAVY WET SNOW EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE COLORADO ROCKIES
AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE FRONT RANGE TONIGHT...
...BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF THE NATION TO
THE EAST OF THE ROCKIES, WHILE ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES EXPAND
ACROSS THE WEST...
...ELEVATED TO CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PERSIST ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES TO SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS; SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR CENTRAL FLORIDA...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACCOMPANIED BY POCKETS OF HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OCCUR FROM THE
COLORADO FRONT RANGE TO THE ARKLATEX TONIGHT. THEREFORE, SLIGHT
RISKS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL AS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING ARE IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS AND A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES ARE POSSIBLE WITH ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP. SOME
HOURLY TOTALS OF 1-1.5" MAY BE REACHED ACROSS SOUTHEAST COLORADO
INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA LEADING TO SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH
FLOODING.
HEAVY WET SNOW IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS STORM
SYSTEM OVER PARTS OF THE COLORADO ROCKIES THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BETWEEN 1-2' OF SNOW WITH ISOLATED HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL
HAVE LIKELY ACCUMULATED BY THE TIME THE SNOW WRAPS UP, WHICH MAY
CAUSE MAJOR TO EXTREME IMPACTS FOR MANY AREAS. THE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER THREATS RAMP UP OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS INTO TEXAS AND BEGINS INTERACTING WITH A
MORE SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNT OF GULF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK (LEVEL 3/5) FOR
PORTIONS OF EASTERN TEXAS DUE TO THE EXPECTATION OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND VERY LARGE HAIL. POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN, SOME WITHIN SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS, ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG AND AROUND A WARM FRONT
STRETCHED OUT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA/TEXAS AND THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
RAIN SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE
SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY. MARGINAL RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND
SEVERE STORMS ARE IN PLACE. MEANWHILE, A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVING ACROSS FLORIDA AND SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS, WITH HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS POSSIBLE WITHIN STRONGER STORMS.
CONTINUED TROUGHING EAST OF THE ROCKIES WILL GENERATE BELOW
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE 15-25 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO, KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA, ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED SOUTHERN PLAINS STORM SYSTEM, ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN HIGH TEMPERATURE READINGS IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S
FOR MANY PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES
MODERATE A BIT ON THURSDAY OVER THOSE AREAS. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING ANOMALOUS WARMTH TO THE WEST OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN MANY PLACES. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS FROM SOUTHEASTERN
ARIZONA TO WESTERN TEXAS LED TO THE ISSUANCE OF A CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER RISK FOR TONIGHT. ELEVATED RISK AREAS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS ON WEDNESDAY.
KEBEDE
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