509
FXUS01 KWBC 261957
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
356 PM EDT WED APR 26 2023
VALID 00Z THU APR 27 2023 - 00Z SAT APR 29 2023
...HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
TONIGHT SHOULD PUSH EAST THURSDAY-FRIDAY...
...SEVERE WEATHER WITH POTENTIALLY LARGE HAIL COULD OCCUR ACROSS
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THIS EVENING...
...HEAVY WET SNOW OVER PORTIONS OF THE ROCKIES IS TAPERING OFF,
BUT MORE WET SNOW IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY...
...WARMING TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WEST COULD BREAK RECORDS BY
FRIDAY WHILE BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR LARGE
PORTIONS OF THE U.S. FROM THE ROCKIES EASTWARD...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
PLAINS IN THE VICINITY OF A COUPLE LOW PRESSURE/FRONTAL SYSTEMS.
ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
PARTS OF TEXAS, WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS SLIGHT TO
ENHANCED RISKS OF SEVERE WEATHER DELINEATED FOR TORNADO, LARGE
HAIL, AND STRONG WIND POTENTIAL. ADDITIONALLY, MORE INSTANCES OF
POTENTIALLY LARGE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA
WHERE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP DUE TO SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES
AND UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY SUPPORTING STORM FORMATION AND
STRENGTHENING. ISOLATED TORNADOES AND GUSTY WINDS COULD ALSO OCCUR
IN FLORIDA, AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EITHER, PARTICULARLY IN THE URBAN CORRIDOR.
AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTS EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THURSDAY AND INTO THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS BY
FRIDAY, RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD INTO THOSE AREAS. ON
THURSDAY, ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER AND
FLASH FLOODING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST, WHERE SLIGHT
RISKS OF BOTH SEVERE WEATHER AND EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ARE IN PLACE
GIVEN PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND ENERGY FOR STORMS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FARTHER INLAND ACROSS THE
SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE U.S. WITH SOME LOWER POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG STORMS AND RUNOFF/FLOODING. ON THE DRIER BACKSIDE OF THE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM, ELEVATED RISKS OF FIRE DANGER ARE IN PLACE
FOR PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS THIS EVENING AND INTO
THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY, RAIN AND STORMS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD INTO THE
TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS AND APPALACHIANS/MID-ATLANTIC TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST ATLANTIC COAST GIVEN THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM'S
MOVEMENT.
FARTHER NORTH, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DIVING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH
PLAINS TONIGHT WILL PRODUCE A VARIETY OF WEATHER AS IT PRESSES
SOUTH AND EAST. AFTER A ROUND OF SNOW IS WINDING DOWN IN
ESPECIALLY THE COLORADO ROCKIES TODAY, HIGHER ELEVATION WET SNOW
UP TO AROUND 6-8 INCHES IN COLORADO WILL ONCE AGAIN BE POSSIBLE IN
THE COOLED AIR BEHIND THE LOW'S COLD FRONT, SHIFTING FROM NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE ROCKIES TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PARTS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY, WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW PERHAPS EXTENDING INTO THE FRONT
RANGE. MEANWHILE, STORMS FARTHER EAST COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE
FOR PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THURSDAY, WHEN A MARGINAL RISK OF
SEVERE WEATHER IS IN PLACE. SEVERE POTENTIAL RISES TO A SLIGHT
RISK IN TEXAS AS THE FRONT/LOW DIP FARTHER SOUTH BY FRIDAY, AND
THE FIRE WEATHER RISK COULD RISE TO CRITICAL FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO WHERE GUSTY WINDS
OCCUR IN LOW DEWPOINTS ON THE DRY SIDE OF A DRYLINE.
A DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST THROUGH LATE WEEK
WILL LEAD TO GRADUAL WARMING OF TEMPERATURES THERE. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOST NOTABLE ACROSS THE WEST COAST STATES,
WHERE A FEW RECORD HIGH MAXIMUM/MINIMUM TEMPERATURES COULD BE TIED
OR SET THURSDAY WITH INCREASING NUMBERS OF POTENTIAL RECORDS BY
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE DESERT SOUTHWEST COULD EXCEED 100F,
SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN USUAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. BUT FROM THE
ROCKIES EASTWARD, TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL FOR
MANY AREAS THROUGH LATE WEEK. FREEZE WARNINGS AND FROST ADVISORIES
ARE IN PLACE ACROSS PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION
FOR A CHILLY THURSDAY MORNING.
TATE
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