337
FXUS01 KWBC 281948
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
348 PM EDT FRI APR 28 2023
VALID 00Z SAT APR 29 2023 - 00Z MON MAY 01 2023
...MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LEAD TO
INCREASED HEAVY RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS EASTERN SEABOARD AND GULF
COAST THROUGH SUNDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN EASTERN TEXAS ON FRIDAY AHEAD
OF ADVANCING COLD FRONT...
...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE; CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OVER THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY...
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK FOR DEEPENING UPPER-TROUGHING TO
MAINTAIN A COOL AND UNSETTLED PATTERN ACROSS THE EASTERN QUADRANT
OF THE LOWER 48 AS WE GO INTO MAY, WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. AN INITIAL BOUT OF
ISOLATED URBAN FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE TODAY ACROSS THE
D.C AND BALTIMORE URBAN CORRIDOR TODAY AS A SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM CAUSES STEADY RAINFALL WITH POCKETS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
RATES. CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY IMPROVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH WITH
THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION BECOMING LIGHTER BY SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. AFTER A
BRIEF LULL IN THE RAIN TOMORROW, THE NEXT FOCUSED ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO ARRIVE ACROSS THE EASTERN SEABOARD
SUNDAY AS TWO DEEP FRONTAL SYSTEMS BEGIN TO MERGE OVER THE
NORTHEAST LATER SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL INSTANCES OF ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO
NEW ENGLAND, WITH RAINFALL TOTALS FORECAST IN THE 1-3" RANGE.
RAINFALL ASIDE, EXPECT THE PERSISTENT UPPER-TROUGHING PATTERN TO
YIELD COOLER THAN AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE LOWER 48 THIS WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
UPPER-MIDWEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY.
MEANWHILE, SEVERE WEATHER AND SOME HEAVY RAINFALL ARE A CONCERN
TODAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
BRINGS AN INFLUX OF UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF AN INTERSECTING COLD
FRONT AND DRYLINE. ACCORDINGLY, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER
MAINTAINS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF
EASTERN TEXAS, WITH LARGE POPULATION CENTERS INCLUDING THE
DALLAS-FORT WORTH, SAN ANTONIO, AND AUSTIN METRO AREAS UNDER THE
RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND TORNADOES TODAY. THE
EVENTUAL MERGER OF THESE STORMS LATER TODAY COULD ALSO SUPPORT
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN TEXAS GIVEN
RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE AREA. BY LATER TONIGHT, A FORMING
SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO, REFOCUSING
HEAVY RAINFALL CHANCES SOUTH AND EAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
IMMEDIATE GULF COAST AS WARM, MOIST AIR STREAMS NORTHWARD BEHIND A
LIFTING WARM FRONT. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
ARE EXPECTED FROM EARLY SATURDAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS, LEADING
TO A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BEING ISSUED FOR THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE, SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA, AND SOUTHERN GEORGIA, AS
A BROAD AREA OF 1-2 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS, AND HOURLY RAINFALL
RATES APPROACHING 2"/HR ARE POSSIBLE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF FLORIDA, WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW
TORNADOES BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.
ELSEWHERE, CONDITIONS WILL BE PLEASANT AND TRANQUIL THIS WEEKEND
ACROSS THE WEST COAST, AS PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING KEEPS
TEMPERATURES 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR AREAS WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ARE
EXPECTED THROUGHOUT INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST,
WHILE LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH, INCLUDING CALIFORNIA'S CENTRAL
VALLEY AND THE MOJAVE/SONORAN DESERTS, REACH THE 90S AND EVEN 100S
IN LOCALIZED AREAS. IN FACT, A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND SOUTHWEST COULD CHALLENGE THEIR DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS
THIS WEEKEND. THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH GUSTY
WINDS TO SUPPORT A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER RISK TODAY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO, WITH ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FORECAST TOMORROW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL PLAINS.
ASHERMAN/RUSSELL
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