089
FXUS01 KWBC 290724
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
323 AM EDT SAT APR 29 2023
VALID 12Z SAT APR 29 2023 - 12Z MON MAY 01 2023
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY ACROSS EASTERN SEABOARD
AND GULF COAST THROUGH SUNDAY AS STRENGTHENING SYSTEM TRACKS ALONG
EAST COAST...
...LOCALIZED, MULTI-DAY SNOWFALL EVENT FOR NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND
UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN THIS WEEKEND; WIDESPREAD BELOW-AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES FOR GREAT LAKES & MIDWEST...
...WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEFORE COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE MONDAY...
A DEEPENING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP CONDITIONS
COOL AND UNSETTLED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY, WITH
MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE
MAIN STORY WILL BE THE DEVELOPING LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF
OF MEXICO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE A
MULTITUDE OF WEATHER HAZARDS, WITH RAINFALL CHANCES INCREASING
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST AS WARM, MOIST AIR
STREAMS NORTHWARD BEHIND A WARM FRONT. SEVERAL WAVES OF
POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED FROM EARLY SATURDAY INTO
THE EVENING HOURS, LEADING TO A SLIGHT RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
ISSUANCE FOR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE, SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA, AND
SOUTHERN GEORGIA, AS A BROAD AREA OF 1-2 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS AND
LOCALIZED HOURLY RAINFALL RATES APPROACHING 2"/HR ARE POSSIBLE.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE, WITH DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND A FEW TORNADOES
BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
DURING THE SUNDAY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
DEEPENING LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM RACES NORTHWARD ALONG THE EASTERN
SEABOARD.
SUNDAY WILL BE A WET AND CHILLY DAY FOR THE ENTIRETY OF THE
NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC, AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS JUST INLAND,
ALLOWING FOR ANOMALOUSLY MOIST AIR TO PUSH ONSHORE, INCREASING THE
CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND PRODUCING REGION-WIDE RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 1"+. LOCALIZED AREAS, INCLUDING CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND
NORTHERN COASTAL NEW ENGLAND, MAY EXPERIENCE UPWARDS OF 2-3
INCHES, RESULTING IN TARGETED SLIGHT RISKS OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
BEING HOISTED. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE OF CONCERN ACROSS
EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA, ESPECIALLY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING, WHEN
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. AS A RESULT, THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HAS PLACED THE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS.
ON THE BACKSIDE OF A STALLED, ANOMALOUS UPPER-LOW, A MULTI-DAY
SNOWFALL EVENT WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND THROUGHOUT PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN WISCONSIN AND THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN, WITH AS
MUCH AS A FOOT OF SNOW FALLING THROUGH THE EARLY MONDAY MORNING
HOURS. A BROADER AREA OF MUCH-BELOW-AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (10-20
DEGREES F BELOW AVERAGE), ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES REGION, WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND, WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH 50 F ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
ELSEWHERE, CONDITIONS WILL START OFF PLEASANT AND TRANQUIL THIS
WEEKEND ACROSS THE WEST COAST, AS PERSISTENT UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING
SUPPORTS TEMPERATURES 15-25 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR AREAS WEST OF
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WIDESPREAD HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S
ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT INTERIOR SECTIONS OF THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, WHILE LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH, INCLUDING CALIFORNIA'S
CENTRAL VALLEY AND THE MOJAVE AND SONORAN DESERTS, REACH THE 90S
AND EVEN 100S IN LOCALIZED AREAS. IN FACT, A FEW LOCATIONS ALONG
THE WEST COAST AND SOUTHWEST COULD CHALLENGE THEIR DAILY
HIGH-TEMPERATURE RECORDS THIS WEEKEND. THE WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO COMBINE WITH GUSTY WINDS TO SUPPORT AN ELEVATED FIRE
RISK AREA ON SATURDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
HOWEVER, A PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVING ONSHORE LATE SUNDAY EVENING WILL
BRING AN END TO THE UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY AS AN
ATTENDANT COLD FRONT PUSHES INLAND.
RUSSELL
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