005
FXUS01 KWBC 291945
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
344 PM EDT SAT APR 29 2023
VALID 00Z SUN APR 30 2023 - 00Z TUE MAY 02 2023
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
EAST COAST THROUGH SUNDAY...
...LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT AND LONG-DURATION SNOWFALL EVENT FORECAST
ACROSS THE U.P. OF MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK...
...BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES TO ENTER THE WEST COAST AND MUCH OF
THE GREAT LAKES, OHIO VALLEY, AND NORTHEAST; WHILE MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST, NORTHERN
ROCKIES, AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
A WET, COOL, AND STORMY WEATHER PATTERN IS SET TO IMPACT MUCH OF
THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH AT LEAST THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK, WITH
THE MAIN IMPACTS BEING ASSOCIATED WITH AN ONGOING AND RAPIDLY
DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM SWINGING UP THE EAST COAST THIS WEEKEND. A
DEEP UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOVE THE UPPER MIDWEST
COMBINED WITH A STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR THE
CENTRAL GULF COAST ARE THE MAIN PIECES FORECAST TO INTERACT AND
LEAD TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND HEAVY RAINFALL CHANCES THROUGH
SUNDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, PARTICULARLY ACROSS FLORIDA AND SOUTHERN
GEORGIA. LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND A FEW TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE. AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS INTO THE CAROLINAS ON
SUNDAY AND STRENGTHENS, SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SPREAD
NORTH INTO MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE GREATEST SEVERE WEATHER
THREAT IS EXPECTED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST
VIRGINIA ON SUNDAY, AS WELL AS ACROSS SOUTHERN FLORIDA ALONG AN
ATTACHED COLD FRONT. ADDITIONALLY, HEAVY RAIN MAY LEAD TO
SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. TWO AREAS HAVE BEEN HIGHLIGHTED AS
HAVING THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR FLOODING CONCERNS AND FALL WITH A
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2/4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. THE FIRST AREA OF
CONCERN INCLUDES MUCH OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE SOUTHERN
TIER OF NEW YORK, WITH THE SECOND AREA ACROSS NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
SOUTHERN MAINE. THE LATEST FORECAST FOR THIS REGION CALLS FOR
WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.
ON THE COLD SIDE OF THIS SYSTEM THROUGHOUT THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
AND UPPER MIDWEST, WINTER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE START OF
MAY. VERY STRONG AND COLD NORTHERLY WINDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A
DEEP, MOSTLY STATIONARY SURFACE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
COMBINE WITH SUBFREEZING AIR ALOFT TO PRODUCE POTENTIALLY HEAVY
SNOWFALL DOWNWIND OF LAKE SUPERIOR ACROSS THE WESTERN U.P. OF
MICHIGAN AND NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE LONG
DURATION SNOWFALL EVENT COULD YIELD UP TO 2 FEET OF SNOW BY
TUESDAY.
ELSEWHERE, A SYSTEM APPROACHING THE WEST COAST ON SUNDAY WILL
USHER IN MUCH COOLER WEATHER TO THE IMMEDIATE WEST COAST BEFORE
BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES SPREAD INTO MUCH OF CALIFORNIA BY THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS, AND HIGH
ELEVATION SNOW ARE ALSO POSSIBLE INTO THE WEST AND
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE AND POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING WARMTH WILL SHIFT
INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN AND NORTHERN ROCKIES. LOWER
ELEVATIONS COULD SEE HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO THE MID-80S, WHILE LOW
100S SPREAD INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. CONTINUED RIVER FLOODING
DUE TO SNOWMELT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MOUNTAINOUS WESTERN UNITED STATES. FOR THE EASTERN U.S., UNSETTLED
WEATHER WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD BELOW AVERAGE TEMPERATURES, WITH
THE CORE OF THE CHILLY CONDITIONS SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES,
NORTHEAST, AND OHIO VALLEY. HIGHS IN THIS REGION THROUGH TUESDAY
WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH ABOVE THE 40S AND 50S.
SNELL
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