795
FXUS01 KWBC 050759
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
359 AM EDT FRI MAY 05 2023
VALID 12Z FRI MAY 05 2023 - 12Z SUN MAY 07 2023
...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE
MIDWEST; SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED FROM THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMER-LIKE HEAT TO ENGULF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND WITH SOME RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE...
...COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO STICK AROUND IN THE WEST;
TEMPERATURES TO REACH MORE SEASONAL LEVELS IN THE EAST THIS
WEEKEND...
AS THE WORK-WEEK ENDS AND THE WEEKEND BEGINS, A PAIR OF FRONTAL
SYSTEMS WILL BE THE CATALYSTS FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND, IN SOME
CASES, STRONG-TO-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
TO THE GREAT LAKES, A STATIONARY FRONT IS SET TO TRIGGER SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS HAVE THE BEST ODDS OF SEEING SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE
FRONT TODAY, HIGHLIGHTED WITH A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS
ISSUED BY THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) OVER WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NEBRASKA. WHILE THE SEVERE THREAT IS NOT AS PRONOUNCED IN
THE NORTHWEST, HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD GENERATE
DOWNPOURS THAT RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING. THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER (WPC) DOES HAVE A MARGINAL RISK IN PLACE FROM THE EASTERN
WASHINGTON AND OREGON TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND CENTRAL MONTANA.
THERE ARE ALSO SOME FLOOD WATCHES IN PLACE FOR PORTIONS OF THE
INTERIOR NORTHWEST THAT RESIDE WITHIN THE MARGINAL RISK AREA. BY
SATURDAY, SHOWERS AND STORMS LIFT NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHILE STILL LINGERING IN PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN IN PLACE IN PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH SATURDAY.
FARTHER SOUTH, NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FORM ALONG A WARM
FRONT OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND A DRYLINE THAT WILL BE
POSITIONED DEEP IN THE HEART OF TEXAS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. THE SPC HAS A SLIGHT RISK IN CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE SEVERE
STORMS COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS, LARGE HAIL, AND TORNADOES.
THERE IS ALSO A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST TODAY. A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH IN THE TENNESSEE VALLEY,
SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL RATES AND RESULTING
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING. WPC HAS ISSUED A MARGINAL RISK TODAY FROM
THE OZARKS ON EAST THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS. AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES EAST ON SATURDAY, THE
FOCUS FOR SEVERE WEATHER MOVES INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
WHERE AS SLIGHT RISK IS IN PLACE DUE TO HIGHER CHANCES FOR SEVERE
STORMS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS, AND TORNADOES. A
MARGINAL RISK EXTENDS AS FAR SOUTH AS THE RIO GRANDE IN
WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS WHERE SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE ARE
POSSIBLE.
IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES, THE WEST COAST WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING INTO THE WEEKEND, KEEPING
TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN NORMAL THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS PATTERN
WILL ALSO LEAD TO PERIODS OF RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION MOUNTAIN SNOW
IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. MEANWHILE, THE NORTHEAST AND
MID-ATLANTIC HAVE ONE COOLER THAN NORMAL DAY IN STORE FOR FRIDAY
BEFORE FINALLY BEGIN TO WARM UP TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS THIS
WEEKEND. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO NORMAL RESIDE IN THE
NATION'S HEARTLAND WHERE MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE HIGH PLAINS WILL
RANGE FROM THE 80S IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE 90S IN
NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. TEMPERATURES ONLY GET HOTTER HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH MAX TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES BETWEEN 15-20 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL FROM NORTH TEXAS TO EASTERN KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI ON
SATURDAY. SOME DAYTIME RECORD HIGH TEMPS ARE POSSIBLE FROM EASTERN
TEXAS ON NORTH INTO WESTERN MISSOURI. MORE RECORD HEAT IS POSSIBLE
IN THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
MULLINAX
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