031
FXUS01 KWBC 051930
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
329 PM EDT FRI MAY 05 2023
VALID 00Z SAT MAY 06 2023 - 00Z MON MAY 08 2023
...ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE
MIDWEST; SEVERE STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS GREAT PLAINS AND
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMER-LIKE HEAT TO ENGULF THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THIS WEEKEND WITH SOME RECORD BREAKING
HIGH TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE...
...COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO STICK AROUND IN THE WEST;
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND...
THE WEEKEND WILL KICKOFF WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
NORTHWEST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS TONIGHT BENEATH A LARGE MEAN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND IT.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL FOCUS ALONG AND AROUND A STATIONARY FRONT
DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN, WHERE WE
HAVE A MARGINAL RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO FLASH
FLOODING IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME 24 HOUR TOTALS OF OVER 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR PARTS OF NORTHWESTERN MONTANA AND FAR
NORTHERN IDAHO BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. WARM TEMPERATURES
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SNOWMELT WHICH IN TURN WILL EXACERBATE ANY
FLOODING CONCERNS BROUGHT ON BY RAINFALL. DOWNSTREAM, SOME
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT COULD TURN
SEVERE OVER PARTS OF NORTHEASTERN COLORADO, WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE STORM
PREDICTION CENTER HIGHLIGHTED THIS AREA FOR A SLIGHT RISK DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
ELSEWHERE, SHORTWAVE ENERGY WILL PROMOTE ADDITIONAL EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL RISK OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND LOWER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TONIGHT WHERE THUNDERSTORMS, SOME SEVERE, COULD
GENERATE HIGH ENOUGH RAINFALL RATES TO PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING. THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER HIGHLIGHTED PORTIONS OF CENTRAL TEXAS FOR
A SLIGHT RISK DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WINDS. THE NEXT SHORTWAVE WILL EMERGE OVER THE SOUTHERN
PLAINS ON SATURDAY. THE CONTINUED PRESENCE OF A DRY LINE ORIENTED
NORTH-SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL TEXAS AS WELL AS SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
BRINGING GULF MOISTURE COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA INTO CENTRAL
TEXAS WHERE THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER ISSUED A SLIGHT RISK.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS SATURDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. AN EMERGING WAVE OF SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS COULD GENERATE SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND DAMAGING GUSTS
OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY MORNING AND
AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE OVER THE CENTRAL GULF COAST
ON SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE SWINGS THROUGH THE REGION. SCATTERED TO
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF THE
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SUNDAY WITH ANOTHER AREA OF SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF IOWA AND NORTHERN MISSOURI THAT
AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER ISSUED A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS DUE TO
THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS FROM ANY SEVERE
STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP.
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR ANOMALOUS WARMTH
EXPANDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS AND INTO THE MIDWEST
THIS WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S COULD RIVAL
HIGH TEMPERATURE RECORDS OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WARM, DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS THIS
WEEKEND WILL PROMOTE FIRE WEATHER IN THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS, WHERE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOKS WERE ISSUED BY THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER. CONVERSELY, MEAN TROUGHING IN THE WEST
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BELOW AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF
15-25 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE OVER MUCH OF CALIFORNIA AND THE GREAT
BASIN THIS WEEKEND. THE COLD AIR WILL SUPPORT HEAVY SNOWFALL
POTENTIAL OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE SIERRA NEVADA ON
SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST WILL BEGIN TO WARM UP THIS
WEEKEND BEFORE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIPS SOUTHWARD OUT OF EASTERN
CANADA AND DROPS TEMPERATURES AGAIN FROM THE NORTHEAST TO
MID-ATLANTIC BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEBEDE
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