016
FXUS01 KWBC 060801
PMDSPD
SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
400 AM EDT SAT MAY 06 2023
VALID 12Z SAT MAY 06 2023 - 12Z MON MAY 08 2023
...SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR IN PARTS OF THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS, MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, AND OHIO VALLEY THIS
WEEKEND...
...UNSEASONABLY COOL IN THE WEST WITH SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW
EXPECTED FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...
...EXPANDING DOME OF JUNE-LIKE TEMPERATURES IN THE NATION'S
HEARTLAND; ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO THE EAST COAST
BY SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY...
A STORMY AND WET WEEKEND IS ON TAP FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN
PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OHIO VALLEY. THE SPOTLIGHT WILL
SHINE BRIGHTEST TODAY ON THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHERE THE DRYLINE
WILL BE THE TRIGGER FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) HAS
ISSUED AN ENHANCED RISK (THREAT LEVEL 3) FROM THE RED RIVER ON
SOUTH INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. SEVERE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING TORNADOES, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS, AND SIGNIFICANT HAIL.
SEVERE STORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WHERE A MARGINAL RISK (THREAT LEVEL 1) IS IN PLACE. BOTH OF
THESE AREAS NOT ONLY ARE AT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER, BUT FLASH
FLOODING AS WELL. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER HAS HOISTED A PAIR
OF MARGINAL RISKS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN THESE SAME REGIONS FOR
SATURDAY. FARTHER NORTH, AN ELONGATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SPARK
SHOWERS AND STORMS FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE
MIDWEST AND INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE SPC DOES HAVE A SLIGHT RISK
FOR PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY, WHICH INCLUDES
PORTIONS OF THE ST. LOUIS METRO AREA. BY SUNDAY, THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM IN THE MIDWEST WILL HAVE MADE SOME PROGRESS EAST, EXPANDING
THE FOOTPRINT FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING MORE
INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE SPC DOES HAVE A SLIGHT RISK FOR PARTS OF
THE MID-MISSOURI RIVER VALLEY ON SUNDAY, AND WPC HAS A MARGINAL
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL FROM EASTERN IOWA TO THE UPPER OHIO
VALLEY.
THE OTHER REGION WITNESSING A WET AND ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN THIS
WEEKEND IS THE NORTHWEST, WHICH INCLUDES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND
NORTHERN ROCKIES. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
DELIVERS A STEADY DOSE OF PACIFIC MOISTURE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN
U.S.. TEMPERATURES ARE COOL ENOUGH IN MOUNTAIN RANGES SUCH AS THE
NORTHERN SIERRA NEVADA AND INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES OF IDAHO,
MONTANA, AND WYOMING FOR 4-8" OF SNOWFALL LOOKS TO ACCUMULATE OVER
THE WEEKEND. IN THE VALLEYS AND ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST,
PERIODS OF RAIN ARE FORECAST TODAY WITH A BRIEF LULL (ALTHOUGH
LIGHT SHOWERS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED) INTO SUNDAY. PORTIONS OF THE
INTERIOR NORTHWEST REMAIN UNDER FLOOD WATCHES THROUGH SATURDAY DUE
TO THE ONGOING PERIODS OF RAIN AND ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT LEADING TO
SOME RIVER AND STREAM FLOODING. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE U.S. BELOW
NORMAL (DAILY MAX TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES 10-20 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN CALIFORNIA) THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE START OF
NEXT WEEK.
WHILE THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY WITNESSES COOLER THAN
NORMAL CONDITIONS, THE FOOTPRINT OF WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO GROW EAST OF THE ROCKIES AND ALONG
THE EAST COAST. SATURDAY'S DAILY MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL PLAINS LOOK TO SOAR INTO THE LOW 90S, WHILE
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY IN SOUTH TEXAS APPROACH
TRIPLE DIGITS. THESE TEMPERATURES, PARTICULARLY IN THE CENTRAL
PLAINS, COULD BREAK DAILY RECORD HIGHS ON SATURDAY. A NEAR
CARBON-COPY FORECAST IS LIKELY IN THESE REGIONS ON SUNDAY, BUT
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO HEAT UP IN THE MIDWEST AND ALONG THE EAST
COAST. BY MONDAY, ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE ENGULFED
JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE TWO-THIRDS OF THE LOWER 48.
MULLINAX
GRAPHICS AVAILABLE AT
HTTPS://WWW.WPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/BASICWX/BASICWX_NDFD.PHP
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page